The Strauss Center welcomed Dr. Scott Sagan on April 7, 2010 to discuss the prospect of developing nuclear power without increasing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.  Dr. Eugene Gholz, Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar, introduced Dr. Sagan and moderated the event.

Dr. Sagan began by describing the renewed global interest in nuclear power and the need for a fresh approach to managing the risk that inevitably accompanies its spread.  Dr. Sagan illustrated historical trends in nuclear power development and provided an overview of states that currently have or aspire to have nuclear power production capacity.  Dr. Sagan’s data indicated that states that currently aspire to have nuclear power largely suffer from corruption and weak governance. 

Dr. Sagan then discussed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), arguing that “cracks” currently exist in each of its “three pillars”: non-proliferation, disarmament and peaceful use.  Dr. Sagan discussed several provisions of the NPT, noting strengths and weaknesses in the current non-proliferation regime and outlining means by which the U.S. can encourage other states to continue to fulfill their NPT obligations.  He proposed several reforms to the NPT to limit the ability of states that withdraw from the NPT to develop nuclear weapons.

With respect to terrorism, Dr. Sagan cautioned the audience not to view al Qaida as the first terrorist organization to show interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.  The Baader-Meinhof cell of the Red Army Faction, Italian Red Brigades, and Aum Shinrikyo all aspired to obtain nuclear weapons prior to the emergence of al Qaida.  Dr. Sagan noted the ease with which individual actors can attain the materials necessary to construct low-grade radiological weapons or “dirty bombs.” 

He concluded the event on a positive note, however, describing promising recent developments, particularly with respect to U.S. non-proliferation efforts.  Dr. Sagan then fielded questions on the origins and history of the NPT, various methods of interpreting the NPT, the relationship between various forms of government and the NPT and methods of minimizing the inherent security risks that accompany the spread of nuclear power.

Dr. Sagan introduced the idea of developing nuclear power without increasing nuclear weapons proliferation.

Dr. Sagan discussed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, nuclear weapons as they relate to terrorism
and positive recent developments.

An audience of Austin community members and UT faculty and students
listened to the presentation in the LBJ Library Brown Room.

Scott Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as a special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon. He has also served as a consultant to the office of the Secretary of Defense and at the Sandia National Laboratory and the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

This presentation is part of the Strauss Center’s International Security Speaker Series, which features leading scholars and policy practitioners discussing challenges and solutions for meeting the security demands of the modern world.