05 September 2014

ACLED releases September 2014 Conflict Trends Report

5 September 2014

Conflict Trends September 2014

In the September 2014 edition of ACLED’s Conflict Trends report, CCAPS researchers Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd report on the decrease in violence in some areas of Africa, and the steady increases in others. While escalating to a high level of violence in the early part of 2014, Burundi’s reported violence decreased dramatically as of late. Burundi’s recent drop in violence is partly do to police intervention, but can also be attributed to opposition groups abstaining from violence in hopes of being able to participate in the 2015 elections.

Riots and protests in Egypt are one of the causes of the slight increase in violence in August. Another significant change is the shift of conflict events to the Sinai Penninsula. The disruption of organized protests and suppression of armed groups may allow for strategic changes in densely populated areas, as well as government institutions. For the fifth consecutive month Libya continued to see an increase in conflict violence. This month saw dramatic political change in Libya with the resignation of Al-Thani. Qaddafi’s influence over the region and his “divide and rule policy” continue to foster instability in Libya. Previously, Boko Haram has been the focus of unrest in Nigeria. Although Boko Haram maintains a high profile, both conflict violence and fatalities saw a decrease in August. The establishment of checkpoints has become a new source of revenue, as they have been strategically placed in areas controlled by Boko Haram. The brutal treatment by Boko Haram of the civilian populace continues without interruption. Darfur was a primary target of violence recently. This area of Sudan saw an increase in attacks, shootings, and rapes. The roles of communal and ethnic militias have played a dynamic role in Sudan violence. These groups participated in approximately half of known battles in Sudan during August. Mangango, located in the Western Providence of Zambia, held by-elections this month, and subsequently saw the highest number of battles in the previous two years. Former Justice Minister Wynter Kaimba has been officially dismissed which has led to his supporters participating in violent standoffs. Armed politicians in Mangango are causing great concern. Although there have been no reported casualties as a result of this, it conveys strained political environment. The full report is available here


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