Exploring the Security Implications of Climate Change

Climate Projections | Publications

Final Program Report—Climate, Conflict, and Governance in Africa: Pinpointing Risks and Opportunities

CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the…


Trends and Triggers Redux: Climate Change, Rainfall, and Interstate Conflict

Colleen Devlin and Cullen Hendrix’s article in Political Geography explores precipitation patterns and interstate conflict. They find that “long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized…

Hot Spots of Security Vulnerability Associated with Climate Change in Africa

CCAPS researchers Joshua Busby, Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Todd Smith and Mesfin Bekalo recently published an article examining areas in Africa where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from…

Projected Changes in East African Rainy Seasons

In their article in the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Kerry Cook and Edwardy Vizy use a regional climate model with 90-km horizontal resolution to predict and analyze precipitation changes over East Africa due to greenhouse…


Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the 21st Century

In the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Ned Vizy and Kerry Cook, with Julien Cretat and Naresh Neupane, use regional climate model simulations to develop predictions for the Sahel at the mid- and late- 21st century….


CCAPS Climate Aid Codebook

This codebook presents the methodology developed and tested by the CCAPS program to track and map the climate change relevant activities within official development assistance (ODA) projects in Africa.


Mid-21st Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern & Tropical Africa

In the Journal of Climate, Edward Vizy and Kerry Cook predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041-2060. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days,…


Impact of Climate Change on Mid-21st Century Growing Seasons in Africa

Kerry Cook and Edward Vizy in their article in Climate Dynamics project changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa, using a new regional climate model. The response is highly regional, with a decrease in growing season…