The June 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trend report provides a snapshot of political violence in Africa as well as an in-depth analysis of a stabilization in the conflict environment in Libya, as well as analysis of the increased conflict activity and the threat of the Islamic State in Tunisia. A special report on focuses local violence monitoring in Burundi.
The May 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trend report analyzes the Oromia protests in Ethiopia, encroaching violence by Fulani herders in southeastern Nigeria, a decline in overall protest events in April 2016, and concomitant rise in voter registration protests in South Africa. A special report focuses on the intractable political crisis in Burundi, exploring the types and locations of unrest and differential reporting of violence in 2015-16.
The April 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trend report focuses on increased protest activity in Chad at the beginning of this year, widespread police abuses in Egypt, the resurfacing of the Mozambican National Resistance movement (RENAMO) violence in Mozambique, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al-Mourabitoun attacks against foreign nationals in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali, and the rise of organized anti-state violence in the aftermath of Museveni’s electoral victory and anti-FDC violence in Uganda.
ACLED's March Conflict Trends report focuses on ADF and FDLR violence in Democratic Republic of Congo, the largely peaceful protests against the expansion of Addis Ababa and the security forces response in Ethiopia, territorial gains made by General Khalifah Haftar’s military forces in Benghazi, Libya, the wide geography of riots and protests by Children of the Liberation Struggle (CLS) in Namibia, the peace process in South Sudan, spikes in protest and low-level Islamist insurgency in Tunisia, and election-based violence in Uganda.
The January 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report is an overview of conflict in 2015 and profiles sexual violence in Central African Republic, on-going police abuses in Egypt in 2016, Islamic State attacks and expanding quasi-military activity in Libya, religious-based violence in Nigeria, increased conflict activity by off-shoot militias in South Sudan and violence against civilians in North Darfur, Sudan.
ACLED's December issue of Conflict Trends focuses on Boko Haram violence and general elections in Nigeria, xenophobic riots and tuition fee protests in universities in South Africa, the trajectory of conflict in South Sudan as it enters its third year of civil war, an increase in ethnic and communal violence as pro-government militias scaled down attacks in Sudan, and riot and protest activity and strategic shifts in Islamist violence in Tunisia.
ACLED's November Conflict Trends report focuses on the diffusion of protests in Algeria amidst elite corruption, State of Sinai activity and parliamentary elections in Egypt, intra-party political violence in Guinea, political contestation in Republic of Congo following President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s constitutional amendment to term limits, demonstrations over university fees in South Africa, and heightened protest activity related to the 2016 elections in Uganda. A Special Focus Topic explores the effect of income and investment on inducing political conflict.
ACLED's October issue of Conflict Trends focuses on the recent coup attempt and popular mobilisation in Burkina Faso, one-sided violence and strategic power-sharing in Burundi, the geography of rebellion in Democratic Republic of Congo, political dialogue and military power play in Libya and by-election violence and UPND incited riots in Zambia.
ACLED's September issue focuses on allegations against peacekeeping forces in Central African Republic, the continuation of a regime of intimidation in Egypt, the potential for Islamic State expansion across Africa, decreased levels of violence following peace talks in South Sudan and a reduction in violence against civilians in Sudan, economically driven protests in Tunisia and patterns of violence surrounding the Zimbabwe by-elections.
ACLED's August issue of Conflict Trends focuses on Algeria’s fragile security situation, tentative peace agreements and violence between Islamic State and Al-Qaeda affiliated groups in Libya, strategic adaption of Al Shabaab forces in Kenya, continued Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria, increased cultural protests in South Africa and the impact of sweeping security measures in Tunisia following the Sousse attack.
ACLED's July issue of Conflict Trends focuses on the shift in political strategy and increased lethality of violence in Burundi, the de-escalation of conflict between Malian forces and the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) in Mali, increased coordination between rebel forces in South Sudan, violence against Darfuri students in Sudan, and competing strategies of violent Islamist groups in Tunisia.
In ACLED Working Paper No. 7, Tunisia's turbulent democratic transition is analyzed through existing theories of Islamist violence, as well as a model of protest cycles. The validity of the protest cycle model is tested in the case of Tunisia by analyzing how the patterns of conflict evolve over time and why they increasingly involve violent Islamist groups.
ACLED Working Paper No. 6 addresses how conflict dynamics in Egypt and Libya have transformed in the post-Arab Spring period with particular focus on the changes in contentious political strategies in response to changing institutional structures.
ACLED Working Paper No. 5 examines coding armed conflicts from a range of sources including newspapers, online journals, and reports by humanitarian organizations. The researchers investigate whether certain types of publications exhibit bias, if urban bias exists in conflict monitoring, and if a state's government affects the compostion of internal conflict reporting.
The June 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends Report focuses on civilian-targeted violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the continued encroachment of Islamic State (IS) affiliate groups in Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and violent Islamist-related activity in Tanzania, LRA and ADF patterns of activity in Uganda and the surrounding Central African region.
ACLED's May 2015 edition of Conflict Trends focuses on the declining activity of Boko Haram, escalating protests in Burundi, and also offers an overview of a newly released ACLED working paper on shifting forms and spatial distribution of protest activity in North Africa.
The April 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends Report
Conflict TrendsDemocratic Republic of CongoLibya NigeriaAfrica despite peace agreementsSouth Sudan.
February 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report focuses on heightened protest activity in Algeria against the government’s proposal to extract shale gas, clashes between Boko Haram and the Cameroon military, Central African Republic, and volatile activity by Al Shabaab in and
The January 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report provides an overview of conflict in 2014 and profiles on-going violence in Central African Republic, civilian-directed violence by political and communal militias in Democratic Republic of Congo, declining protest rates in Egypt, Al Shabaab activity in Kenya, and Boko Haram violence in North-East Nigeria.