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Articles: Research by the CCAPS program is often published in external publications including journals, working papers, and reports by the policy and academic community. CCAPS research has been published in Climate Dynamics, International Security, and the Journal of Peace Research, among others.
A House Divided
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557.17 kB
21 January 2016

In a recent article for the Journal of Conflict Resolution, CCAPS researchers Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan use the program’s Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) to address issues pertaining the regime repression in Africa.

No News Is Good News
20 April 2015

In their article in International Interactions, CCAPS researchers Cullen Henrix and Idean Salehyan discuss underrporting bias. The authors propose using the method of mark and recapture to find an estimate of the true number of events. 

Global Food Prices, Regime Type, and Urban Unrest in the Developing World
27 February 2015

Cullen Hendrix, a lead researcher on the CCAPS program, and Stephan Haggard recently published an article on global food prices and urban unrest in the Journal of Peace Research. Their research, which focuses on Africa and Asia and uses data from 1961 to 2010, is also highlighted in NewSecurityBeat, a blog by the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program.

Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Mapping 3.0: An Update
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5.34 MB
13 February 2015

This paper by CCAPS researchers expands on the data, methodology, and results presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco (April 2013) and recently published in their paper “Climate security vulnerability in Africa mapping 3.0”, in Political Geography (Issue 43: 2014).

Best Practices in the Collection of Conflict Data
01 January 2015

CCAPS researcher Idean Salehyan discusses best practices in collecting conflict data, including source selection, coding, and data sharing. 

Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Mapping 3.0
25 November 2014

In this article, published in Politcal Geography, CCAPS researchers Josh Busby, Todd G. Smith and Nisha Krishnan detail the methodological refinements made to an existing model of climate security, vulnerability, rationale for the approach, and the findings. 

Trends and Triggers Redux: Climate Change, Rainfall, and Interstate Conflict
01 November 2014

Colleen Devlin and Cullen Hendrix's article in Political Geography explores precipitation patterns and interstate conflict. They find that "long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes" and that "joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect."

Feeding Unrest
21 October 2014

In this articleCCAPS researcher Todd G. Smith explores the issue of whether rising domestic consumer food prices are a contributing cause of sociopolitical unrest, more broadly defined, in urban areas of Africa.

Climate Shocks and Political Violence
01 September 2014

CCAPS researchers Idean Salehyan and Cullen Hendrix examine the relationship between environmental scarcity and political violence. The authors conclude that "water abundance is positively correlated with political violence, and that this relationship is stronger in less developed, more agriculturally dependent societies."

Hot Spots of Security Vulnerability Associated with Climate Change in Africa
18 June 2014
CCAPS researchers Joshua Busby, Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Todd Smith and Mesfin Bekalo recently published an article examining areas in Africa where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. 

Extreme Temperatures and Violence
29 January 2014

In a recent article featured in Nature Climate Change, CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh examines the theory that extreme weather events are the drivers of insecurity and conflict. She argues that suggesting that climate change is the dominant influence on violence can lead to environmental determinism, effectively overlooking the true causes of conflict.

Alan Kuperman on Constitutional Design and Conflict Management in Africa
29 October 2013

In an article published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Alan Kuperman explores whether constitutional reform could reduce political instability and violence in Africa. The project recommends promoting gradual reform of Africa's centralized constitutional designs by counter-balancing them with liberal institutions.

Local Level Climate Justice? Adaptation Finance and Vulnerability Reduction
06 September 2013
In this article, Sam Barrett of Trinity College Dublin investigates the ground-level effectiveness of adaptation finance in climate vulnerable villages across Malawi. The study uses participatory assessments to compare actions of villages receiving adaptation finance with those engaging in autonomous and informal adaptations.

Projected Changes in East African Rainy Seasons
31 July 2013
In their article in the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Kerry Cook and Edwardy Vizy use a regional climate model with 90-km horizontal resolution to predict and analyze precipitation changes over East Africa due to greenhouse gas increases.
Governance and Conflict in the Sahel's Ungoverned Space
11 July 2013
In their article in Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd examine governance and violence rates in the 'ungoverned' spaces of the African Sahel. The authors review theories of spatial governance, the geopolitics of the Sahel, and the violent actors operating in the Sahel.
Climate Security and East Africa: A GIS-Based Analysis of Vulnerability
26 April 2013
Climate Change and Pastoralism: Traditional Coping Mechanisms and Conflict in the Horn of Africa, published by the Institute for Peace and Security Studies and the University for Peace, includes a chapter by CCAPS researchers on applying a continent-wide model of climate security vulnerability to East Africa and identifying the hot spots of concern.
Climate Change and Insecurity: Mapping Vulnerability in Africa
26 April 2013
The Spring 2013 issue of International Security features an article by CCAPS researchers on mapping climate security vulnerability in Africa. The authors find that the places in Africa most vulnerable to the security consequences of climate change are parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and South Sudan.
Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the 21st Century
12 February 2013
In the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Ned Vizy and Kerry Cook, with Julien Cretat and Naresh Neupane, use regional climate model simulations to develop predictions for the Sahel at the mid- and late- 21st century. Based on their analysis, the Sahel is likely to experience increased surface air temperatures, summer rainfall, and surface moisture.
Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls
20 December 2012
The Air and Space Power Journal Africa and Francophonie, a quarterly publication of the U.S. Air Force, featured an article by CCAPS researchers on the future consequences of climate change. The authors put forth the CCAPS model of vulnerability as an approach to identify where, when, and how climate-related events will disrupt Africa's security.
Spatial Vulnerability of Rural Nigeria to Climate Change
31 October 2012
Ignatius Madu's article in the International Journal of Climate Change explores the spatial patterns of vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria, finding that the more vulnerable households are in northern states that are characterized by a high degree of rurality. Dr. Madu is a winner of the CCAPS Call for Papers on environmental security.