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Gavin Introduces the Next Issue of the Texas National Security Review

Aug 18, 2021 |

Francis J. Gavin, Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar and Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and the inaugural director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at SAIS-Johns Hopkins University, recently published an essay titled “What If We Are Wrong?” This is the introductory essay for Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Texas National Security Review, a project co-sponsored by the Strauss Center. Gavin begins his essay by noting a common weakness of many foreign policy analysts: the misuse of history, and more specifically, the cognitive bias of the perspective of recent events. Gavin then discusses the many essays included in this issue of the TNSR, noting how many of them illustrate how hard it is to leverage history appropriately.

After summarizing the contents of the issue, Gavin discusses how we can use history more wisely. Gavin argues that the rigid interrogation of historical analogies, paired with a few key suggestions, is one way to improve our “ability to forecast.” His first suggestion is that we must recall that “history is more than a simple grab bag of examples and analogies you can ransack to fit your current question.” To that end, he notes, it is critical that we not only explore how history is similar to a current issue, but also how it is different. Gavin then gives insight into the best way to determine “how our present and future are different from the past.” One way to do so is to clarify the basic structural changes rather than relying on political similarity alone. Gavin also suggests an increased emphasis on the role of perspective in historical analysis, noting the importance of time and place in the formation of historical perspective. He concludes by underscoring the inevitability of us being wrong sometimes, and the importance of maintaining the “intellectual flexibility” which will enable us to recognize when things are changing and act in kind. Read the full essay here.

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