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Briefs: CCAPS briefs present concise summaries of the goals, methodology, and findings of all studies conducted under the CCAPS program. ACLED conflict trend briefs provide monthly updates on trends in political violence across Africa.
Date:
13 May 2013
The May volume of Conflict Trends looks at escalating conflict in Ivory Coast, Libya, and Nigeria which have each seen high-profile violence this month. The report also includes an overview of conflict in the Darfur Region of Sudan as well as the ongoing conflict in Somalia.
Date:
25 April 2013
ACLED's country report focuses on Somalia, the most violent country in the ACLED dataset when measured on number of violent events, and the ninth most fatal country when measured in terms of conflict-related reported fatalities.
Date:
25 April 2013
ACLED's country report focuses on Nigeria, the fourth most violent country in the ACLED dataset when measured by the number of violent events, and the seventh most fatal over the course of the dataset's coverage (1997 March 2013).
Date:
18 April 2013
This issue of Conflict Trends focuses on recent developments in Central African Republic (CAR), Kenya, Mali, Nigeria and South Sudan. The special focus section this month provides a conceptual and methodological overview of ACLED terminology and categorization of violence, and its relevance to the analysis and understanding of discrete patterns and dynamics of conflict.
Date:
18 April 2013
In Research Brief No. 13, CCAPS researchers present the Climate Security Vulnerability Model which identifies the locations of chronic vulnerability to climate security concerns in Africa. This version of the model incorporates updated data sources, scales the data in a new way to capture differences in local vulnerabilities, and experiments with alternative formulas to determine how these various risk factors coalesce to impact local vulnerability.
Date:
18 April 2013
In Research Brief No. 12, CCAPS researchers present a new methodology for coding the territorial influence of governments and rebel groups for use in conjunction with sub-nationally geocoded foreign aid data to understand whether and how foreign aid affects the intensity of violent armed conflict.
Date:
18 April 2013
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 11, Todd Smith seeks to unravel the complex and circular relationship between food prices and social unrest in Africa and to provide insight into potential causal mechanisms. His main finding is that a sudden increase in consumer food prices in a given month does contribute significantly to an increase in the probability of unrest in that month.
Date:
18 March 2013
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 10, Jennifer Bussell suggests that the two clearest predictors of countries' investment in disaster preparedness are economic strength and perceived risk of natural threats. However, these factors explain little when there is limited electoral incentive to invest in disaster management or minimal bureaucratic capacity to implement preparedness programs.
Date:
18 March 2013
Natural hazards do not necessarily result in disasters, but they present a clear policy challenge for national governments: how does a country prepare for the often unexpected? In CCAPS Research Brief No. 9, Jennifer Bussell and Adam Colligan provide an evaluation of potential explanations for variation in government efforts to develop disaster management capacities.

Date:
15 March 2013
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) released the March 2013 issue of its monthly Conflict Trends Report. This issue focuses on the run-up to the election in Kenya and profiles conflict patterns in Djibouti, Egypt, and Tunisia, where conflict escalated in the past month as political crises deepened across North Africa and the Horn.
Date:
12 February 2013
The February 2013 issue of the Conflict Trends Report is the eleventh in a series of monthly publications from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset (ACLED). This month's report provides an overview of violent conflict trends in Africa in January 2013, with a focus on events in Kenya, Mali, Egypt, Algeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Date:
12 February 2013
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 8, Caitriona Dowd outlines the geography of Islamist militancy on the African continent and provides an analysis of commonalities and differences across distinct militant Islamist groups. The analysis shows that the levels of violent Islamist activity in Africa have risen sharply in recent years, both in absolute and proportional terms.
Date:
07 February 2013

In CCAPS Research Brief No. 7, Cullen Hendrix argues that the very features of democracy that make it better suited to address the issues of the rural sector - where chronic food insecurity is most prevalent - also make democracies more likely to see unrest in times of high food prices.

Date:
07 February 2013
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 6, Idean Salehyan and Christopher Linebarger use the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) to assess the relationship between elections and unrest. The study found that elections increase conflict in two distinct contexts: during times of civil war, and in authoritarian systems.
Date:
06 February 2013
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) released the January 2013 issue of its monthly Conflict Trends Report. This issue analyzes events in 2012 and focuses on the top ten most conflict-prone countries: Somalia, South Africa, Nigeria, DR-Congo, Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria.
Date:
13 December 2012
The December issue of the Conflict Trends Report is the ninth in a series of monthly publications from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset (ACLED). This month is the second in a series of regionally-focused reports, focusing on the East Africa cases of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and DR-Congo.
Date:
09 November 2012
The November issue of the Conflict Trends Report is the eighth in a series of monthly publications from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset (ACLED). This month is the first in a series of regionally-focused reports, looking at the West African states of Benin, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Mauritania.
Date:
15 October 2012
This trends report is the seventh monthly publication by ACLED with analysis on realtime disaggregated data on political conflict in Africa. This month's report focuses on developments in DR-Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, and South Africa and includes a thematic focus on violent Islamist groups across the African continent.
Date:
27 September 2012
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 5, Catherine Weaver, Justin Baker, and Christian Peratsakis outline CCAPS methodology to track aid activities relevant to climate change adaptation within official development assistance projects in Malawi. The proof of concept shows it is not only desirable, but possible, to provide accessible and timely data on climate aid.
Date:
12 September 2012
This monthly trends report by ACLED focuses on developments in Côte d'Ivoire, DR-Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Realtime data for the month of August is presented, analyzed, and compared with longer-term trends to explore patterns in actors, modalities, and geographies of violence.