Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of both chronic and sudden environmental disasters in Africa. Open to question, however, is which countries will be particularly vulnerable to climate change and how climate change-induced environmental pressures might exacerbate or trigger serious social unrest up to and including violent conflict.

CCAPS climate vulnerability research seeks to specify where, when and how climate-related events disrupt Africa's security and development, in order to provide practical resources to guide policy development and aid allocation.

A new model developed by CCAPS researchers enables policymakers to identify which areas in Africa are most vulnerable to climate change and why at the most detailed scale possible. The CCAPS climate security vulnerability model combines data on physical, socio-economic, demographic, and political insecurities to develop a holistic model of vulnerability, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to locate the confluence of these various sources of vulnerability.

By determining which areas in Africa are the highest right from the physical, political, and social changes that could be triggered or exacerbated by climate change, the project aims to identify where security attention and foreign aid are most needed and what kind of interventions may be most effective.