Give Uncertainty a Chance: Leveraging Information Technologies to Deter Great Power War
Join the Strauss Center for International Security and Law and the Clements Center for National Security as we host Caitlin Lee, professor of policy analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy, for a talk on “Give Uncertainty a Chance: Leveraging Information Technologies to Deter Great Power War.” New technologies—especially AI, drones, and cyber tools—are often framed as drivers of technological uncertainty that make conflict faster and easier to start. This talk considers another possibility: under the right conditions, states can leverage novel information technologies to manage uncertainty in support of strategic stability. Technology-centered coercion campaigns that introduce calibrated ambiguity about attribution, capability, or what happens next may persuade an adversary to think twice. Of course, the resulting uncertainty must induce adversary caution at one level without threatening his ability to survive on another. Paired with AI-enabled technologies that assess adversary perceptions and reactions, it may be possible for coercers to walk that line. Through cases including conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, this talk examines how states may be able to leverage knowledge asymmetries in competitive cycles without creating levels of risk that either side finds unacceptable. It closes with the United States and China—two nuclear-armed peers already using novel information technologies in a competition of risk—and asks whether the introduction of carefully calibrated ambiguity offers a more targeted way to deter Beijing, at least temporarily and under specific conditions.
No registration required. Seating is first come, first served. Lunch will be served. For more information, reach out to Ali Prince at ali.prince@austin.utexas.edu
Biography
Caitlin Lee is the director of Acquisition and Technology Policy in the National Security Research Division at RAND. In her research role as a senior political scientist, she currently focuses on how the United States should design forces, adopt new technology, and build resilience into its industrial base to deter China. She has testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, published on military innovation and drone warfare in the Journal of Strategic Studies, Air and Space Power Journal, and other academic and popular outlets, and has authored or co-authored RAND studies on a variety of aerospace, force design, and technology topics including RAND’s Thinking Through Protracted War with China. She previously founded the Mitchell Institute’s Center for UAV and Autonomy Studies and served as the senior aviation reporter for the America’s Bureau of Jane’s for over a decade. She teaches Planning US Military Forces at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program and holds a Ph.D. in War Studies from King’s College London.