The Robert S. Strauss Center welcomed Dr. Francis Gavin, Strauss Center Director of Studies and Tom Slick Professor of International Affairs at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, and Dr. Alan Kuperman, Strauss Center Senior Fellow and Director of the Strauss Center’s Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Endowment, on November 20, 2009 to discuss nuclear nonproliferation.  Dr. Jim Lindsay, director of the Strauss Center, introduced the panelists.

Dr. Lindsay asked Dr. Gavin to discuss the effectiveness of nuclear nonproliferation in preventing a “nightmare scenario”¬ù forecasted by President Kennedy regarding an overabundance of nuclear weapons in the world.  Dr. Gavin provided an overview of various factors that have shaped nuclear nonproliferation policy, describing how President Johnson provided much of the impetus in defining major policy trends. 

Dr. Lindsay then asked Dr. Kuperman to discuss the extent to which we should be concerned about nuclear proliferation in light of existing scholarship that suggests proliferation actually facilitates periods of peace.  Dr. Kuperman first noted that nonproliferation policy has played a role in reducing the prevalence of nuclear weapons.  Dr. Kuperman then addressed Kenneth Waltz’s assertion that the presence of nuclear weapons has a deterrent effect on inter-state hostilities, pointing to aspects of nuclear proliferation that can have destabilizing effects.

Dr. Gavin and Dr. Kuperman further discussed the merits of Waltz’s assertions regarding the deterrent effects of nuclear weapons.  When asked about the value of pursuing non-proliferation, Dr. Kuperman insisted that a cost-benefit analysis is necessary on an ad hoc basis to determine whether such pursuit is justified. 

Dr. Lindsay then prompted Dr. Gavin to discuss his views on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  Dr. Gavin provided a general overview of the circumstances in which other nations have decided to develop nuclear weapons before stating that counter-proliferation is impractical in the case of Iran.  Dr. Kuperman discussed Iranian rationality, noting that the behavior of religious regimes is often hard to predict.  Dr. Kuperman provided a cost-benefit analysis of preventing or destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities, stating that there is a possibility of delaying Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons long enough for a potentially more stable regime to take power.

Dr. Gavin discussed the merits of various approaches to the issue of Iranian nuclear armament.  Dr. Kuperman then addressed the possibility of a terrorist organization using nuclear weapons, stating that evidence indicates that terrorists are intent on doing so.  Dr. Lindsay then invited questions from the audience.

Dr. Gavin and Dr. Kuperman responded to questions regarding the future of U.S. nuclear stockpiles, the willingness of the U.S. to use nuclear weapons, the differences between plutonium and uranium and their impact on nuclear weapons’ effectiveness and various nations’ motivations in pursuing nuclear armament.

Watch the panel below:

Add to My Calendar