The National Research Council released a report, authored by the Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses, that explores the links between climate change and national security. The report, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis, incorporates the research findings of several CCAPS researchers including Joshua Busby, Cullen Hendrix, Clionadh Raleigh, and Idean Salehyan.

In its discussion on interstate and intrastate conflict and violence, the report cites two articles based on CCAPS research that were published in a special issue of the Journal of Peace Research: Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa, by Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan, and Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Climate and Conflict Variability in East Africa, by Clionadh Raleigh and co-author Dominic Kniveton.

Using the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD), which contains data on more than 6,000 social conflict events over the past two decades, Hendrix and Salehyan examine the effect of rainfall variability on conflict in their article, “Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa.” Through a definition of social conflict that includes activities such as riots, strikes, and demonstrations, Hendrix and Salehyan analyze the relationship between environmental shocks and unrest. They find that extreme deviations in rainfall are associated positively with political conflict and that political violence is more prevalent following wetter years.

In “Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa,” Clionadh Raleigh and co-author Dominic Kniveton explore the relationship between climate and conflict by focusing on rainfall variability and small-scale conflict in East Africa. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), the researchers conclude that, in areas where rebel or communal conflicts occur, conflict events will increase during periods of extreme rainfall variation.

In addition to the two Journal of Peace Research articles, the National Research Council report cites Joshua Busby’s paper on Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action published by the Council on Foreign Relations. Busby describes the effects of climate change in the U.S. that could impact national security, such as extreme weather events causing damage to military bases. He also notes the effect of climate change at the international level, such as flooding in the low elevation areas of Bangladesh that could involve U.S. relief efforts. Busby concludes with a set of policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability to climate change in the U.S. and abroad.

The Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis report is available here.