The Air and Space Power Journal ““ Africa and Francophonie, a quarterly publication of the U.S. Air Force, recently featured an article by CCAPS researchers on the future consequences of climate change in Africa.
CCAPS researcher Joshua Busby, with co-authors Jay Gulledge, Todd Smith, and Kaiba White, review what is known about climate change and, more specifically, climate change in Africa. Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls discusses the limitations of the tools, such as historical analogues, forecasting, and scenario analysis, that have been thus far implemented to predict the effects of climate change in the years to come. The authors put forth the CCAPS model of vulnerability as an approach to identify where, when, and how climate-related events will disrupt Africa’s security and development. The vulnerability model combines data on physical, socio-economic, demographic, and political insecurities, and utilizes GIS to locate the confluence of these various sources of vulnerability.
Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls: The Future Consequences of Climate Change is available here.
Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar Joshua Busby has been named the recipient of the 2026 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving the World Order for scholarship presented in his 2022 book, "States and Nature: The Effects of Climate Change on Security." His work was based, in part, on his studies within Strauss Center programs on Complex Emergencies and Political Instability in Asia...
On April 21, Ashley Moran, director of the Strauss Center's State Fragility Initiative, spoke at an event briefing NATO on civil society working group recommendations on expanding NATO’s work to address the security risks from climate and environmental stress. The April 21 event was organized by NATO’s Policy Planning Unit and Emerging Security Challenges Division. It included remarks by several...
Professor Joshua Busby, Associate Professor of Public Affairs at the LBJ School and Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar, recently co-authored a piece for the World Economic Forum titled “The US needs partners to tackle the security risks of climate change.” The article begins by presenting three main arguments: that climate change imposes increasingly hazardous risks to “stability and security”; that the Biden...