Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict with Taiwan 

February 17, 2026

Asia Policy Program Director Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens was recently interviewed for the China Global Podcast where she outlines the domestic implications if China were to move forward with an invasion of Taiwan.  The analysis of domestic implications relies on a study by the German Marshall Fund where Dr. Greitens co-authored a section of Chinese internal social stability in response to an invasion of Taiwan. She discusses a variety of issues, including whether a prolonged conflict or damage to the homeland would create domestic tension and backlash among the population. 

“You might get a rally around the flag effect, I wouldn’t rule it out,” states Dr. Greitens. “But then, the CCP is going to have to figure out how to de-escalate the conflict… in a way that doesn’t leave the public thinking the [party] didn’t fail to stand up for China’s goals and image.”

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