The Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs recently hosted a panel of experts to discuss the rise of China in the new century, titled “American Century, Asian Century, or Nobody’s Century?” As a panelist, Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar and LBJ School Professor Josh Eisenman argued that it is unlikely for China to dominate the next century as a global power.

Eisenman stated that the last 30 years of Chinese growth will most likely not resemble the next 30 years, and combined with an aging population, Northeast Asia will not be able to claim the greatest share of influence in the next century. Eisenman argues that China’s success in the next century is largely depedent on the country’s ability to enact an effective developmental strategy, instead of seeking future success from past performance.

Eisenman was also interviewed in BBC Asia’s News day following the Chinese government’s decision to end its one child policy. The decision came from domestic pressure to put an end to the policy, but the political party still feels that it can dictate family size in China, which according to Eisenman, is not a healthy sign of the current Chinese political system. When asked if the change in policy will have the intended effect on changing the demographic of the aging mainland population, Eisenman is not optimistic, especially in the short term. He pointed out that the current state of the economy is causing local budgets to decline while deficits rise, and considering the rising costs of child care, it is unlikely that urban populations will take advantage of the new policy, while rural populations may have increased birthrates, but still on a small scale. He states that the reaction to the new policy is “…not going to be enough, probably to stem the tide of degrading population”.

In a recent article for the South China Morning Post, titled “It’s your Country, not Mine: China’s New Language of Discontent”, Eisenman introduces a word that is translated into “your country” – niguo. The Chinese population, especially the tech-savvy youth are using this phrase to distance themselves from social injustice, bigotry, and bad behavior that are common in China, and using this word as a sort of declaration of individual independence from the policies of the Communist party. Having no avenue to openly expressing their opinions on important matters that effect their lives, this phrase is a subtle, yet powerful tool for expressing discontent with the Chinese government.