In an article published in the spring 2015 issue of the journal International Organization, Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar and UT Government Professor Patrick McDonald takes on the so-called democratic peace theory, which holds that democracies do not go to war with one another. In the article, “Great Powers, Hierarchy, and Endogenous Regimes: Rethinking the Domestic Causes of Peace,” McDonald argues that great powers, not democracy, determine the nature of the international political order and influence the likelihood of peace or conflict.

While the academic literature in support of the democratic peace theory is vast, questions remain regarding the specific mechanisms whereby democracy promotes peace. McDonald argues that existing arguments in favor of the theory, while numerous, are weak and focus on “narrow historical windows” and outlier countries. Furthermore, McDonald notes that much of the literature ignores, oversimplifies, or overlooks the various causes of democracy within countries and underestimates the influence of great power hierarchy on country behavior.

McDonald argues instead that the “apparent peace among democracies” is the product of “great power bargains that emerge in the aftermath of conflict.”  According to McDonald, post-war settlements set the terms, and thus dictate the durability of, democratic peace. This process of negotiation and transformation determines the relationship between nations, and the pursuant hierarchy that emerges influences the nature of conflict.

McDonald ultimately illustrates that the evidence in favor of the democratic peace theory is problematic and contends that the “relationship between democracy and peace is spurious.” McDonald ultimately concludes that the “international political order is still built and managed by great powers.”