This November 2025 migration dynamics and conditions update report focuses on current U.S. asylum restrictions at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from November 10, 2025 through November 17, 2025. It also relies...
This August 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum restrictions at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from August 18, 2025 through August 21, 2025. It also relies on local news...
For more than 140 years, individuals have clandestinely crossed into the United States through Arizona. These migration routes often circumvent official ports of entry and expose individuals to the state's harsh terrain, including extensive deserts and mountain ranges. In the summer, temperatures can soar well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, while winter temperatures in the mountains can plummet to below freezing....
Each year, thousands of clandestine migrants attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border to reach destinations throughout the United States. This practice dates back to the 1880s, when the U.S. Congress passed the country’s first restrictive immigration laws. At this time, various populations became unable to enter the country through official ports of entry. In response, some of these individuals hired...
For more than a century, clandestine migrants have traveled over the U.S.-Mexico border. Beginning in 1882, the U.S. Congress passed its first legislation to restrict migration, which led some banned migrants to enter the United States through clandestine pathways as the earliest unauthorized migrants. Over the following decades, Congress passed additional legislation and increased enforcement efforts to deter migration across...
For decades, hundreds of thousands of migrants have attempted to enter the United States through the country’s southern border. These individuals have made the journey to escape conflict and violence, poverty and a lack of economic opportunity, or to reunite with loved ones, among other reasons. In recent years, many of these individuals have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border to seek...
This May 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. Since the Trump Administration assumed office and halted asylum processing, the conditions for migrants along the border have changed dramatically. In January 2025, the administration cancelled approximately 30,000 scheduled CBP One appointments and closed the pathway for an...
This February 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. As of January 20, 2025, there is no longer any asylum processing at the border. On this day, President Donald Trump assumed office for a second term and immediately halted all asylum processing—including both at and between ports...
This November 2024 asylum processing update focuses on the CBP One appointment system and conditions for waiting asylum seekers in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from November 4, 2024 through November 8, 2024. It also relies on local news...
Stephanie Leutert, September 2021
Climate Change and Pastoralism: Traditional Coping Mechanisms and Conflict in the Horn of Africa, published by the Institute for Peace and Security Studies and the University for Peace, includes a chapter by CCAPS researchers on applying a continent-wide model of climate security vulnerability to East Africa and identifying the hot spots of concern. Read the full article here.
In a recent article for the Journal of Conflict Resolution, CCAPS researchers Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan use the program’s Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) to address issues pertaining the regime repression in Africa. Access the full article here.
In their article in International Interactions, CCAPS researchers Cullen Henrix and Idean Salehyan discuss underreporting bias. The authors propose using the method of mark and recapture to find an estimate of the true number of events. Read the full article here.
Cullen Hendrix, a lead researcher on the CCAPS program, and Stephan Haggard recently published an article on global food prices and urban unrest in the Journal of Peace Research. Their research, which focuses on Africa and Asia and uses data from 1961 to 2010, is also highlighted in NewSecurityBeat, a blog by the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program. Read the...
CCAPS researcher Idean Salehyan discusses best practices in collecting conflict data, including source selection, coding, and data sharing. Read the full article here.
Colleen Devlin and Cullen Hendrix's article in Political Geography explores precipitation patterns and interstate conflict. They find that "long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes" and that "joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect."...
In this article, CCAPS researcher Todd G. Smith explores the issue of whether rising domestic consumer food prices are a contributing cause of sociopolitical unrest, more broadly defined, in urban areas of Africa.
The CEPSA climate security vulnerability research team presents its updated findings of the Asian Climate Security Vulnerability model version 2 (ACSV V2), an attempt to map sub-national climate security vulnerability in 11 countries in South and Southeast Asia.
Ashley Moran, Joshua Busby, and Clionadh Raleigh, War on the Rocks, 2018
Download ReportThis brief serves as the detailed follow-up to the CEPSA aid researchers' first analysis on the national CCA and DRR plans and their implementation in Bangladesh and Nepal. While that study relied heavily on interviews, this brief surveys national and donor strategies and plans for 11 countries in the South and South East Asian region. The annotated bibliography for the document...
CEPSA aid researchers Catherine Weaver, Nisha Krishnan, and Caleb Rudow assess project information available for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction to concentrate on five major donors: the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Japanese International Cooperation Agency, United Kingdom Department for International Development, and the United States Agency for International Development.
CEPSA governance researchers Paula Newberg and Samuel Tabory explore questions about coastal cities in South Asia and their own understandings of their societies, polities, economies and governing capacities in the face of increasing climate-related threats.
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Burundi, Tunisia, and Somalia. The report focuses on protests and low-level violence in Ethiopia’s border regions, violence in Kenya around the electoral re-run, Boko Haram’s weakened but ongoing campaign of violence and continued communal violence in Nigeria, a spike in violence in Mozambique’s northern region of Cabo Delgado and the resurgence of violence...
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Nigeria and Somalia. The report focuses on expanding militant Islamist activity in and around Burkina Faso, simmering tensions in Egypt’s Sinai province, the resurgence of the Islamic State in Libya, recent spikes in protests and riots in both Cameroon and Togo as well as shifting conflict dynamics in Zambia. A Special Report explores...
This month’s issue focuses on increasing protests in the aftermath of the elections in Angola, growing uncertainty and frustration as the political stalemate in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues, changing dynamics of political competition and risk in Kenya, and the shifting tactics of Boko Haram in Nigeria.
The August 2017 ACLED-Asia's Conflict Trends Report includes comprehensive analysis of real-time political violence in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, and Sri Lanka. A Special Focus Topic discusses Islamist insurgencies in the region.
The codebook for the CEPSA Aid Transparency dataset investigates the availability and quality of project documentation for a randomly selected set of projects from five major donors and 11 countries in order to understand the availability and quality of basic project information and documentation. Download the dataset here.
The Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD) is the successor to the Social Conflict in Africa Database. This version of the data extends coverage to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, while maintaining the data for Africa.
This user guide provides detailed information on the climate aid data collected by the CCAPS program, including the climate coding process and the coding spectrum used to evaluate aid project activities.
This codebook describes the coding system for each variable included in the CCAPS program’s African Constitutional Design Database.
The codebook for the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) explains the data collection process, coding methodology, and definitions for conflict actor types and events.
The codebook for the Armed Conflict Location and Event Datset (ACLED) explains the data collection process, including where and how the data for ACLED events is collected and organized, and defines conflict actor types and events.
The User Guide to the CCAPS Aid Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Aid Dashboard combines trends analysis with the most comprehensive collection of geocoded data on aid projects in Africa.
The User Guide to the CCAPS Conflict Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Conflict Dashboard brings together mapping, trends analysis, and raw data so that users can visualize emerging and historical conflict trends in Africa.
The CCAPS Climate Security Vulnerability Model (CSVM) aims to identify places most likely vulnerable to climate security concerns in Africa. This document outlines the general mapping process used for the vulnerability model, the rationale for inclusion of particular indicators in the model, and the specific process for calculating vulnerability.
In CCAPS Course Module No. 5, Catherine Weaver provides course material exploring why aid for adaptation and mitigation is important for addressing climate change vulnerability in Africa. The module covers climate funding for adaptation and mitigation programs, and how climate-related activities within development aid programs are identified and tracked.
In Course Module No. 4, CCAPS researcher Robert Wilson explores how climate change will affect people living in African cities. The answer to this complex question has two interrelated dimensions. It hinges on, first, the scope of future climate change and resulting changes in population exposures to weather-related hazards and, second, the degree of vulnerability of urban populations to these...
In Course Module No. 3, CCAPS researcher Jennifer Bussell provides background and discussion materials for consideration of how partner nations' institutional capacity for disaster preparedness may be relevant to the U.S. Military. Bussell explores institutional capacity in the context of natural disasters, and how it can be defined.
In Course Module No. 2, CCAPS researcher Alan Kuperman addresses a longstanding debate between academics and policymakers regarding two opposing strategies of constitutional design—accommodation and integration. Kuperman argues that both constitutional designs can produce stability, but they must be implemented properly.
Does climate change constitute a national security threat to the United States? What is climate security vulnerability? In Course Module No. 1, CCAPS researcher Joshua Busby provides background material, discussion questions, scenarios, and resources for an in-depth discussion on national security and climate change.
The Critical Materials Innovation Hub (CMI Hub) translated basic science discovery on mechanisms for separation of rare earth elements into engineered chemicals being commercialized through a public-private partnership
Work with domestic and international partners to forge and sustain a robust, secure, and resilient industrial base enabling the warfighter, now and in the future.
Access to strategic materials is critical to the modern U.S. advanced economy becausestrategic materials are necessary for many industries including electronics, energy storage,vehicles, infrastructure, computing, and more.
While important in addressing barriers to critical mineral investments, infrastructure projects – such as the United States-led Lobito Atlantic Railway project covering Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia – may result in positive spillovers for competitors in a way that does not align with investors’ original intent.
While important in addressing barriers to critical mineral investments, infrastructure projects – such as the United States-led Lobito Atlantic Railway project covering Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia – may result in positive spillovers for competitors in a way that does not align with investors’ original intent.
Given China’s overwhelming dominance in the production of all steps of the battery anode supply chain,diversifying global graphite production is essential to a secure global energy transition.
Given China’s overwhelming dominance in the production of all steps of the battery anode supply chain,diversifying global graphite production is essential to a secure global energy transition.
Critical minerals are necessary in applications across core industries, from the defense industrialbase to the automotive industry.1 Nickel, for example, is used in the steel pressure hulls of attacksubmarines and the lithium-ion batteries of electric vehicles.
This memo provides an overview of nickel demand and the current nickel supply chain,focusing on recent market developments. It reviews relevant chemical processing routes,techno-economic considerations, and key geographies.
For more than 140 years, individuals have clandestinely crossed into the United States through Arizona. These migration routes often circumvent official ports of entry and expose individuals to the state's harsh terrain, including extensive deserts and mountain ranges. In the summer, temperatures can soar well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, while winter temperatures in the mountains can plummet to below freezing....
Each year, thousands of clandestine migrants attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border to reach destinations throughout the United States. This practice dates back to the 1880s, when the U.S. Congress passed the country’s first restrictive immigration laws. At this time, various populations became unable to enter the country through official ports of entry. In response, some of these individuals hired...
For more than a century, clandestine migrants have traveled over the U.S.-Mexico border. Beginning in 1882, the U.S. Congress passed its first legislation to restrict migration, which led some banned migrants to enter the United States through clandestine pathways as the earliest unauthorized migrants. Over the following decades, Congress passed additional legislation and increased enforcement efforts to deter migration across...
For decades, hundreds of thousands of migrants have attempted to enter the United States through the country’s southern border. These individuals have made the journey to escape conflict and violence, poverty and a lack of economic opportunity, or to reunite with loved ones, among other reasons. In recent years, many of these individuals have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border to seek...
For more than 140 years, migrants have drowned in the Rio Grande while attempting to cross into the United States. These drownings date back to the 1880s, when the U.S. Congress passed its first restrictive immigration policies. At the time, newly banned migrants started crossing in between ports of entry, and swimming, wading, or rafting across the Rio Grande into...
For more than a century, migrants have died in South Texas while attempting to enter the United States. These deaths began in the late 1800s after the U.S. Congress passed its first restrictive immigration policies. At the time, some migrants responded to these restrictions by taking clandestine routes to enter the country. Over the following decades, restrictive immigration policies and...
For more than 140 years, migrants have died along the United States and Mexico’s nearly 2,000-mile-long border. Currently, the state of Texas—which makes up two-thirds of the border—is the deadliest stretch for migrants in transit. While migrants may die from various causes within Texas, the state’s interior, composed of vast and rugged Texas brush, is particularly deadly. Every year, thousands...
In November 2018, the United States and Mexico negotiated the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP). Before MPP, asylum seekers were allowed to wait in the United States during their asylum cases. However, with MPP, asylum seekers are now forced to wait in Mexican border cities as their cases move through the U.S. immigration system. In January 2019, U.S. officials began to...
En noviembre de 2018, Estados Unidos y México negociaron los Protocolos de Protección de Migrantes (PPM). Antes de los PPM, a los solicitantes de asilo se les permitía esperar en los Estados Unidos durante sus casos de asilo. Sin embargo, con los PPM, los solicitantes de asilo ahora se ven obligados a esperar en las ciudades fronterizas mexicanas a medida...
Ashley Moran, International Crisis Group, 2020
Download Reporthttps://warontherocks.com/2018/11/horns-of-a-dilemma-the-intersection-of-global-fragility-and-climate-risks/ Josh Busby and Ashley Moran, UT, Austin, 2018
Kevin Rosner, Infrastructure Security Conference, Manama, 2016
https://www.strausscenter.org/strauss-news/strauss-center-presents-research-at-seridas-symposium.html Christine Bonthius, Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands Symposium, Hannover, 2015
Graduate students in Dr. Robert Wilson's Policy Research Project present research on the capacity of local governments to respond to the impacts of climate change. Students traveled to select African cities "including Accra, Ghana; Alexandria, Egypt; Cape Town, South Africa; Casablanca, Morocco; Dakar, Senegal; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Kampala, Uganda; Luanda, Angola; and Maputo, Mozambique" to conduct field research and interviews...
Alan Kuperman presents Designing Constitutions to Reduce Domestic Conflict at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
Joshua Busby presents Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Mapping 3.0 at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
Todd G. Smith presents Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest in Africa at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
Dylan Malcomb presented The Geography of Foreign Assistance: A Case Study of Malawi at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
This November 2025 migration dynamics and conditions update report focuses on current U.S. asylum restrictions at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from November 10, 2025 through November 17, 2025. It also relies...
This August 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum restrictions at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from August 18, 2025 through August 21, 2025. It also relies on local news...
This May 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. Since the Trump Administration assumed office and halted asylum processing, the conditions for migrants along the border have changed dramatically. In January 2025, the administration cancelled approximately 30,000 scheduled CBP One appointments and closed the pathway for an...
This February 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. As of January 20, 2025, there is no longer any asylum processing at the border. On this day, President Donald Trump assumed office for a second term and immediately halted all asylum processing—including both at and between ports...
This November 2024 asylum processing update focuses on the CBP One appointment system and conditions for waiting asylum seekers in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from November 4, 2024 through November 8, 2024. It also relies on local news...
This August 2024 asylum processing update focuses on the CBP One appointment system and conditions for waiting asylum seekers in Mexican border cities. While waiting in Mexico for a CBP One appointment, asylum seekers continue to face unstable living conditions and security risks in border cities. Civil society organizations have detailed widespread violence against asylum seekers waiting for appointments in Mexico....
This May 2024 report provides an asylum processing update along the U.S.-Mexico border and focuses on the CBP One appointment system, the processes for managing walk ups, and conditions for waiting asylum seekers. Overall, asylum seekers continue to face unstable living conditions and security risks in Mexican border cities. Civil society organizations have detailed widespread violence against asylum seekers waiting...
This February 2024 report provides an asylum processing update along the U.S.-Mexico border and focuses on the CBP One appointment system, the processes for managing walk ups, and conditions for waiting asylum seekers. Overall, asylum seekers continue to face unstable living conditions and security risks in Mexican border cities. Certain groups of asylum seekers also continue to experience additional challenges....
This November 2023 report provides an asylum processing update along the U.S.-Mexico border and focuses on the CBP One appointment system, the increasing use of waitlists to manage walk ups, and conditions for waiting asylum seekers. Overall, asylum seekers continue to face unstable living conditions and security risks in Mexican border cities. Certain groups of asylum seekers also continue to...
Soenen, Christian, September 2018
Squires, Scott, June 2018
Hofstetter, Jacob, May 2018
Yates, Caitlyn, Dec 2017
Squires, Scott, May 2017
This November 2025 migration dynamics and conditions update report focuses on current U.S. asylum restrictions at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from November 10, 2025 through November 17, 2025. It also relies...
This August 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum restrictions at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from August 18, 2025 through August 21, 2025. It also relies on local news...
For more than 140 years, individuals have clandestinely crossed into the United States through Arizona. These migration routes often circumvent official ports of entry and expose individuals to the state's harsh terrain, including extensive deserts and mountain ranges. In the summer, temperatures can soar well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, while winter temperatures in the mountains can plummet to below freezing....
Each year, thousands of clandestine migrants attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border to reach destinations throughout the United States. This practice dates back to the 1880s, when the U.S. Congress passed the country’s first restrictive immigration laws. At this time, various populations became unable to enter the country through official ports of entry. In response, some of these individuals hired...
For more than a century, clandestine migrants have traveled over the U.S.-Mexico border. Beginning in 1882, the U.S. Congress passed its first legislation to restrict migration, which led some banned migrants to enter the United States through clandestine pathways as the earliest unauthorized migrants. Over the following decades, Congress passed additional legislation and increased enforcement efforts to deter migration across...
For decades, hundreds of thousands of migrants have attempted to enter the United States through the country’s southern border. These individuals have made the journey to escape conflict and violence, poverty and a lack of economic opportunity, or to reunite with loved ones, among other reasons. In recent years, many of these individuals have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border to seek...
This May 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. Since the Trump Administration assumed office and halted asylum processing, the conditions for migrants along the border have changed dramatically. In January 2025, the administration cancelled approximately 30,000 scheduled CBP One appointments and closed the pathway for an...
This February 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. As of January 20, 2025, there is no longer any asylum processing at the border. On this day, President Donald Trump assumed office for a second term and immediately halted all asylum processing—including both at and between ports...
This November 2024 asylum processing update focuses on the CBP One appointment system and conditions for waiting asylum seekers in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from November 4, 2024 through November 8, 2024. It also relies on local news...
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Burundi, Tunisia, and Somalia. The report focuses on protests and low-level violence in Ethiopia’s border regions, violence in Kenya around the electoral re-run, Boko Haram’s weakened but ongoing campaign of violence and continued communal violence in Nigeria, a spike in violence in Mozambique’s northern region of Cabo Delgado and the resurgence of violence...
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Nigeria and Somalia. The report focuses on expanding militant Islamist activity in and around Burkina Faso, simmering tensions in Egypt’s Sinai province, the resurgence of the Islamic State in Libya, recent spikes in protests and riots in both Cameroon and Togo as well as shifting conflict dynamics in Zambia. A Special Report explores...
This month’s issue focuses on increasing protests in the aftermath of the elections in Angola, growing uncertainty and frustration as the political stalemate in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues, changing dynamics of political competition and risk in Kenya, and the shifting tactics of Boko Haram in Nigeria.
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Chad, Mali and Somalia and focuses on simmering tensions between the UPC and the FPRC-MPC and Return, Reclamation and Rehabilitation militia violence in Central African Republic, the trajectory of a peaceful protest to armed rebellion in Ethiopia, and political and land-motivated unrest and insurgency in the lead up to the August elections in...
This month’s issue presents conflict summaries onEthiopia, Libya, and Mali and explores the decline in activity of the Kamwina Nsapu (KN) militia in Democratic Republic of Congo, the potential for nationwide escalation of protests in Morocco, violent activity across Niger, an increase in riots/ protest against President Zuma’s recent cabinetn and poor service delivery in South Africa, a temporary lull...
This month’s issue focuses on the strategies, patterns and geography of al-Shabaab violence in Kenya and Somalia, an upswing in riot activity in Ghana by New Patriotic Party (NPP) supporters, political party protest activity during election primaries in Kenya, decreasing conflict activity by Boko Haram and Fulani militias in Nigeria and escalating rebel clashes & civilian attacks in SouthSudan. A...
This month’s issue focuses on the scope and scaleof operations conducted by the Kamwina Nsapumilitia across the Kasai region of the Democratic Republic of Congo, banditry attacks and retaliatory communal violence in Madagascar, the surge of violence in Mali following the recent merger between Islamist groups into the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (AQM) group and reduced rebel group activity...
This month’s issue focuses on President el-Sisi’ssecuritisation of Egypt to remove the opportunityfor protest, union-led protests in Guinea, a decrease in political violence in Ivory Coast following mutiny in January, increasing xenophobic violence & riots and protests across South Africa, a review of conflict dynamics in South Sudan after violence re-erupted between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation...
This month’s report is an overview of conflict in 2016 and profiles trends in violence in six key focus countries: Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Republic of Congo, Somalia and Tunisia (see pages 7-8). In-depth reports outline how reduction in riot and protest activity in Ethiopia have been replaced by sustained battles between state forces and OLF and ONLA rebel groups; decreasing...
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
In a Brookings Institutions paper, researchers Kate Weaver, Krista Rasmussen, Justin Baker, and Joshua Powell discuss a new methodology used to improve the analytic power of data on food security. The aid- tracking pilot provides key insights into whether and how donors are shifting away from emergency food relief toward allocating longer-term development resources to address the underlying conditions of...
CCAPS Research Brief No. 32 discusses the policy relevance of tracking climate financing for the World Bank, recipient country governments, and development initiatives in order to improve climate adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
What do we know about the impact of climate change on development goals? This research brief by Kate Weaver explores why aid for adaptation and mitigation is important for addressing climate change vulnerability in Africa. The brief covers climate funding for adaptation and mitigation programs and how climate related activities within development aid programs are identified and tracked.
CCAPS Research Brief No. 25 looks at how this concept of resilience can be operationalized and explores the implications of a resilience framework on food security interventions in fragile states. It describes how resilience can promote stability through policies that seek to diffuse risk and reduce vulnerability to shocks, and discusses who should be responsible for implementing resilience strategies.
CCAPS Research Brief No. 26 explores the political, economic, and ecological pros and cons of biotechnology in African agriculture and the critical role of smallholder farmers in the decision-making process. Biosafety hazards, climate resilience, and seed systems are discussed to explain biotechnology risks, followed by a discussion of current biotechnology and biofortification uses in Africa to understand regional trends.
CCAPS Research Brief No. 27 explores how persistent inequality threatens to undermine development strategies and magnifies exposure to risks for marginalized segments of rural and urban populations. As governments direct more attention to the agricultural sector, what strategies will ensure that increased investment will translate into increased food security?
CCAPS Research Brief No. 28 details the history and controversy surrounding contract farming—also known as outgrower systems— and their potential role as a vehicle for inclusive agricultural growth. This brief pinpoints practices that increase the bargaining power of farmers and the likelihood of positive outcomes for both firms and smallholders.
In CCAPS Course Module No. 5, Catherine Weaver provides course material exploring why aid for adaptation and mitigation is important for addressing climate change vulnerability in Africa. The module covers climate funding for adaptation and mitigation programs, and how climate-related activities within development aid programs are identified and tracked.
In 2011, Malawi became the first country in the world to capture the near-universe of official development aid activities at the subnational level in a publicly available, dynamic map. In this report, the researchers present their geocoded data and discuss the evolution of the mapping initiative and the potential benefits of aid mapping.
In this article, Sam Barrett of Trinity College Dublin investigates the ground-level effectiveness of adaptation finance in climate vulnerable villages across Malawi. The study uses participatory assessments to compare actions of villages receiving adaptation finance with those engaging in autonomous and informal adaptations.
CCAPS Research Brief No. 18 focuses on aid for climate change adaptation in Malawi, finding that aid explicitly targeting adaptation makes up a small fraction of Malawi's total aid portfolio (one to six percent). When aid focused on broader capacity development is taken into account, nearly one-fifth of all official development assistance in Malawi has potential to reduce people's vulnerability...
CCAPS Research Brief No. 17 presents a new methodology for tracking aid for food security. To pilot this method, CCAPS researchers coded and mapped official development assistance projects from five major donors in Malawi, finding that approximately 29 percent of development activities were relevant to food security.
The User Guide to the CCAPS Aid Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Aid Dashboard combines trends analysis with the most comprehensive collection of geocoded data on aid projects in Africa.
Dylan Malcomb presented The Geography of Foreign Assistance: A Case Study of Malawi at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
In CCAPS Student Working Paper No. 5, a graduate student research team set out to examine how to effectively track development aid to Africa, develop a methodology to track climate change adaptation aid, and explore case studies about the challenges that African countries face when deploying aid resources to adapt to climate change.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 5, Catherine Weaver, Justin Baker, and Christian Peratsakis outline CCAPS methodology to track aid activities relevant to climate change adaptation within official development assistance projects in Malawi. The proof of concept shows it is not only desirable, but possible, to provide accessible and timely data on climate aid.
This codebook presents the methodology developed and tested by the CCAPS program to track and map the climate change relevant activities within official development assistance (ODA) projects in Africa.
CCAPS researcher Michael Findley presents his research on the effect of foreign aid on terrorism and civil wars. His presentation, Killing with Kindness? The Effects of Foreign Aid on Violence in Africa, discusses his finding that foreign aid can be an effective instrument in fighting terrorism if allocated in appropriate ways.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 2, Catherine Weaver and Christian Peratsakis discuss CCAPS research assessing where international aid resources have been effectively deployed, which they argue is critical to addressing climate change vulnerability and building adaptive capacity in Africa.
In CCAPS Policy Brief No. 1, Catherine Weaver and Christian Peratsakis explore the challenges of defining and tracking climate change aid. Utilizing data from AidData, the authors discuss the findings of their preliminary assessment of the number of aid projects to Africa that could be categorized as climate change adaptation.
CCAPS researchers Catherine Weaver and Christine Ackerson identify key resources on aid and climate change adaptation. The document includes international organization and intergovernmental panel reports, scholarly articles and new reports, and key websites for climate change, aid, and development.
CCAPS researcher J. Timmons Roberts, Martin Stadelmann, and Saleemul Huq take a closer look at the Copenhagen promise and discuss six big questions about climate finance in their briefing by the International Institute for Environment and Development.
Joshua Busby examines the relationship between environmental quality, poverty, and security in his chapter in Confronting Poverty. The chapter explores what may be gained from efforts to securitize climate change, the evidence underpinning this, and varied arguments on the links between climate change and conflict. Read the full chapter here.
Peter Newell, CCAPS research J. Timmons Roberts, Emily Boyd, and Saleemul Huq identify four key lessons that donor countries need to learn in their briefing by the International Institute for Environment and Development.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
The User Guide to the CCAPS Aid Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Aid Dashboard combines trends analysis with the most comprehensive collection of geocoded data on aid projects in Africa.
The User Guide to the CCAPS Conflict Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Conflict Dashboard brings together mapping, trends analysis, and raw data so that users can visualize emerging and historical conflict trends in Africa.
In Research Brief No. 12, CCAPS researchers present a new methodology for coding the territorial influence of governments and rebel groups for use in conjunction with sub-nationally geocoded foreign aid data to understand whether and how foreign aid affects the intensity of violent armed conflict.
CCAPS researcher Michael Findley presents his research on the effect of foreign aid on terrorism and civil wars. His presentation, Killing with Kindness? The Effects of Foreign Aid on Violence in Africa, discusses his finding that foreign aid can be an effective instrument in fighting terrorism if allocated in appropriate ways.
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Burundi, Tunisia, and Somalia. The report focuses on protests and low-level violence in Ethiopia’s border regions, violence in Kenya around the electoral re-run, Boko Haram’s weakened but ongoing campaign of violence and continued communal violence in Nigeria, a spike in violence in Mozambique’s northern region of Cabo Delgado and the resurgence of violence...
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Nigeria and Somalia. The report focuses on expanding militant Islamist activity in and around Burkina Faso, simmering tensions in Egypt’s Sinai province, the resurgence of the Islamic State in Libya, recent spikes in protests and riots in both Cameroon and Togo as well as shifting conflict dynamics in Zambia. A Special Report explores...
This month’s issue focuses on increasing protests in the aftermath of the elections in Angola, growing uncertainty and frustration as the political stalemate in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues, changing dynamics of political competition and risk in Kenya, and the shifting tactics of Boko Haram in Nigeria.
This month’s issue includes conflict summaries on Chad, Mali and Somalia and focuses on simmering tensions between the UPC and the FPRC-MPC and Return, Reclamation and Rehabilitation militia violence in Central African Republic, the trajectory of a peaceful protest to armed rebellion in Ethiopia, and political and land-motivated unrest and insurgency in the lead up to the August elections in...
This month’s issue presents conflict summaries onEthiopia, Libya, and Mali and explores the decline in activity of the Kamwina Nsapu (KN) militia in Democratic Republic of Congo, the potential for nationwide escalation of protests in Morocco, violent activity across Niger, an increase in riots/ protest against President Zuma’s recent cabinetn and poor service delivery in South Africa, a temporary lull...
This month’s issue focuses on the strategies, patterns and geography of al-Shabaab violence in Kenya and Somalia, an upswing in riot activity in Ghana by New Patriotic Party (NPP) supporters, political party protest activity during election primaries in Kenya, decreasing conflict activity by Boko Haram and Fulani militias in Nigeria and escalating rebel clashes & civilian attacks in SouthSudan. A...
This month’s issue focuses on the scope and scaleof operations conducted by the Kamwina Nsapumilitia across the Kasai region of the Democratic Republic of Congo, banditry attacks and retaliatory communal violence in Madagascar, the surge of violence in Mali following the recent merger between Islamist groups into the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (AQM) group and reduced rebel group activity...
This month’s issue focuses on President el-Sisi’ssecuritisation of Egypt to remove the opportunityfor protest, union-led protests in Guinea, a decrease in political violence in Ivory Coast following mutiny in January, increasing xenophobic violence & riots and protests across South Africa, a review of conflict dynamics in South Sudan after violence re-erupted between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation...
This month’s report is an overview of conflict in 2016 and profiles trends in violence in six key focus countries: Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Republic of Congo, Somalia and Tunisia (see pages 7-8). In-depth reports outline how reduction in riot and protest activity in Ethiopia have been replaced by sustained battles between state forces and OLF and ONLA rebel groups; decreasing...
This month’s issue focuses on increasing intra-militia violence in Central African Republic, the continuation of political violence dynamics in Democratic Republic of Congo and the emergence of the Kamwina Nsapu militia in 2016, the poorly developed protest landscape in Egypt under an increasingly repressive el-Sisi regime, endemic student and election riots and protests across South Africa, and the geographic escalation...
This month’s issue focuses on the chances oflocalised protest episodes - including organisedlabour movements - to coordinate across Egyptand escalating violence in the Sinai Peninsula, theincreasing incidence of violent riots and the emergence of local armed militias in Ethiopia as concessions by the TPLF fail to abate unrest, and rising anti-state violence in Greater Equatoria in South Sudan in a...
This month’s issue focuses on election andinsecurity-related protests in DR-Congo, conflictin Libya’s east over governance, competitionbetween RENAMO and the Mozambique government, civilian-targeted violence and Al Shabaabactivity in Somalia, escalating student protestsacross South Africa and ZANU-PF violence againstorganised opposition in Zimbabwe.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
This month’s issue focuses on ADF-NALU attacksin the Democratic Republic of Congo, growingcoordination between popular demonstrations inOromia and Amhara regions in Ethiopia, the prospect of wider protests against the re-election ofPresident Ali Bongo Ondimba in Gabon, Boko Haram and Niger Delta Avenger (NDA) activity inNigeria, regionally-clustered riots in Zambia andincreased mobilisation against ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe.
This month’s issue focuses on a decrease in overall violence levels in the Central African Republicand a rise in clashes between nomadic herders inthe northwest and settled populations; Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)reform protests that have concentrated in Nairboiand the Nyanza region of Kenya and increasedattacks in Juba in South Sudan. A Special Reportexplores the geography of protest across...
The June 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trend report provides a snapshot of political violence in Africa as well as an in-depth analysis of a stabilization in the conflict environment in Libya, as well as analysis of the increased conflict activity and the threat of the Islamic State in Tunisia. A special report on focuses local violence monitoring in Burundi.
The May 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trend report analyzes the Oromia protests in Ethiopia, encroaching violence by Fulani herders in southeastern Nigeria, a decline in overall protest events in April 2016, and concomitant rise in voter registration protests in South Africa. A special report focuses on the intractable political crisis in Burundi, exploring the types and locations of unrest and differential...
The April 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trend report focuses on increased protest activity in Chad at the beginning of this year, widespread police abuses in Egypt, the resurfacing of the Mozambican National Resistance movement (RENAMO) violence in Mozambique, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al-Mourabitoun attacks against foreign nationals in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali, and the rise...
ACLED's March Conflict Trends report focuses on ADF and FDLR violence in Democratic Republic of Congo, the largely peaceful protests against the expansion of Addis Ababa and the security forces response in Ethiopia, territorial gains made by General Khalifah Haftar’s military forces in Benghazi, Libya, the wide geography of riots and protests by Children of the Liberation Struggle (CLS) in...
The January 2016 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report is an overview of conflict in 2015 and profiles sexual violence in Central African Republic, on-going police abuses in Egypt in 2016, Islamic State attacks and expanding quasi-military activity in Libya, religious-based violence in Nigeria, increased conflict activity by off-shoot militias in South Sudan and violence against civilians in North Darfur, Sudan.
ACLED's December issue of Conflict Trends focuses on Boko Haram violence and general elections in Nigeria, xenophobic riots and tuition fee protests in universities in South Africa, the trajectory of conflict in South Sudan as it enters its third year of civil war, an increase in ethnic and communal violence as pro-government militias scaled down attacks in Sudan, and riot and...
ACLED's November Conflict Trends report focuses on the diffusion of protests in Algeria amidst elite corruption, State of Sinai activity and parliamentary elections in Egypt, intra-party political violence in Guinea, political contestation in Republic of Congo following President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s constitutional amendment to term limits, demonstrations over university fees in South Africa, and heightened protest activity related to the...
ACLED's October issue of Conflict Trends focuses on the recent coup attempt and popular mobilisation in Burkina Faso, one-sided violence and strategic power-sharing in Burundi, the geography of rebellion in Democratic Republic of Congo, political dialogue and military power play in Libya and by-election violence and UPND incited riots in Zambia.
ACLED's September issue focuses on allegations against peacekeeping forces in Central African Republic, the continuation of a regime of intimidation in Egypt, the potential for Islamic State expansion across Africa, decreased levels of violence following peace talks in South Sudan and a reduction in violence against civilians in Sudan, economically driven protests in Tunisia and patterns of violence surrounding the...
ACLED's August issue of Conflict Trends focuses on Algeria’s fragile security situation, tentative peace agreements and violence between Islamic State and Al-Qaeda affiliated groups in Libya, strategic adaption of Al Shabaab forces in Kenya, continued Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria, increased cultural protests in South Africa and the impact of sweeping security measures in Tunisia following the Sousse attack.
ACLED's July issue of Conflict Trends focuses on the shift in political strategy and increased lethality of violence in Burundi, the de-escalation of conflict between Malian forces and the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) in Mali, increased coordination between rebel forces in South Sudan, violence against Darfuri students in Sudan, and competing strategies of violent Islamist groups in Tunisia.
In ACLED Working Paper No. 7, Tunisia's turbulent democratic transition is analyzed through existing theories of Islamist violence, as well as a model of protest cycles. The validity of the protest cycle model is tested in the case of Tunisia by analyzing how the patterns of conflict evolve over time and why they increasingly involve violent Islamist groups.
ACLED Working Paper No. 5 examines coding armed conflicts from a range of sources including newspapers, online journals, and reports by humanitarian organizations. The researchers investigate whether certain types of publications exhibit bias, if urban bias exists in conflict monitoring, and if a state's government affects the compostion of internal conflict reporting.
The June 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends Report focuses on civilian-targeted violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the continued encroachment of Islamic State (IS) affiliate groups in Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and violent Islamist-related activity in Tanzania, LRA and ADF patterns of activity in Uganda and the surrounding Central African region.
ACLED Working Paper No. 6 addresses how conflict dynamics in Egypt and Libya have transformed in the post-Arab Spring period with particular focus on the changes in contentious political strategies in response to changing institutional structures.
ACLED's May 2015 edition of Conflict Trends focuses on the declining activity of Boko Haram, escalating protests in Burundi, and also offers an overview of a newly released ACLED working paper on shifting forms and spatial distribution of protest activity in North Africa.
In their article in International Interactions, CCAPS researchers Cullen Henrix and Idean Salehyan discuss underreporting bias. The authors propose using the method of mark and recapture to find an estimate of the true number of events. Read the full article here.
The April 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends Report focuses on the intervention of French Military Forces in West Africa, Islamist Militancy and Counter Insurgency strategies in North Africa, an analysis of violence surrounding the recent elections in Nigeria, and targeted violence against foreign nationals.
ACLED's March 2015 Conflict Trends report, focuses on continued violence against civilians in Democratic Republic of Congo, political alliances and localised conflict inLibya amidst UN-brokered negotiations, heightened activity by transnational actors against Boko Haram in Nigeria, the endurance of violence across Africa despite peace agreements, and the temporary de-escalation of conflict events in South Sudan.
February 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report focuses on heightened protest activity in Algeria against the government’s proposal to extract shale gas, clashes between Boko Haram and the Cameroon military, Central African Republic, and volatile activity by Al Shabaab in Somalia, and South Sudan.
The codebook for the Armed Conflict Location and Event Datset (ACLED) explains the data collection process, including where and how the data for ACLED events is collected and organized, and defines conflict actor types and events.
The January 2015 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report provides an overview of conflict in 2014 and profiles on-going violence in Central African Republic, civilian-directed violence by political and communal militias in Democratic Republic of Congo, declining protest rates in Egypt, Al Shabaab activity in Kenya, and Boko Haram violence in North-East Nigeria.
CCAPS researcher Idean Salehyan discusses best practices in collecting conflict data, including source selection, coding, and data sharing. Read the full article here.
CCAPS researchers Ashley Moran and Clionadh Raleigh, with co-author Yacob Mulugetta, explore how local-level conflict and environmental data can assist policymakers and researchers in assessing links between environmental patterns and violence. The brief, published with GMACC, explores the difficulties of bridging between physical and political phenomena through three ongoing conflicts across Africa: Darfur, Mali, and South Sudan.
The November 2014 issue of Conflict Trends Report focuses on rebel violence in central Africa’s DR-Congo, on-going and escalating volatility in Libya, prospects of peace in Mali as talks continue apace in Algeria, and a review of electoral violence in Mozambique. A special focus topic highlights the dynamics, uses and patterns of remote violence such as that involving IEDs and...
In the October 2014 edition of ACLED’s Conflict Trends report, CCAPS researchers Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd report on continued violence of Boko Haram, protest dynamics in Egypt, ongoing unrest in South Sudan, and a special focus on the spread of Ebola in West Africa.
In the September 2014 edition of ACLED’s Conflict Trends report, CCAPS researchers Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd report on the decrease in violence in some areas of Africa, and the steady increases in others.
In the August 2014 edition of ACLED’s Conflict Trends Report, CCAPS researchers Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd profile the escalation of conflict in South Sudan and Uganda alongside the on-going crisis in Somalia, reductions in hostilities in Mozambique, and the short-term drop in violence in Cameroon for the month of July.
The July 2014 edition of ACLED's Conflict Trends report explores conflict dynamics in relation to conflict minerals in DR-Congo, the growing security crisis in Kenya, ongoing unrest in Nigeria, clashes between government forces and rebels in Mozambique, and changing dynamics in Mali.
In the June 2014 edition of ACLED’s Conflict Trends Report, CCAPS researchers Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd profile the ongoing unrest in the Central African Republic, the attempted peace agreements in Mali, the presidential election in Malawi, student protests in Senegal, and the continuation of violence in Nigeria.
In the May 2014 edition of ACLED’s Conflict Trends report, CCAPS researchers Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd examine unrest in Algeria and Tunisia, the ongoing crisis in central Africa, the run up to elections in Malawi and South Africa, and the recent abductions by Boko Haram in Nigeria.
The April 2014 issue of Conflict Trends report focuses on Central Africa and the Great Lakes Region (Burundi, Central African Republic, DR-Congo, Rwanda, Uganda), Madagascar, South Sudan, and Sudan, with a special report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report.
This ACLED regional report underscores the changing complexity of North Africa’s conflict profile by providing an analysis of the role and activity of the state in political violence, dynamics of civil unrest in the form of riots and protests, and an actor-based study of historic and contemporary Islamist militancy across the region.
The March 2014 issue of Conflict Trends report examines the ongoing violence in the Central African Republic, the devolution of power in Kenya and its effect on local conflict in the country, the changing nature of conflict dynamics in Mali, the increasing rate of civilian targeting in Nigeria, and Al Shabaab’s role in the increased conflict levels in Somalia.
The February 2014 issue of Conflict Trends report focuses on the escalation of conflict in Central African Republic, political developments in Kenya and Mozambique, and prospects for peace in South Sudan. The report also provides an in depth overview of the recently launched Version 4 dataset.
In a recent article featured in Nature Climate Change, CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh examines the theory that extreme weather events are the drivers of insecurity and conflict. She argues that suggesting that climate change is the dominant influence on violence can lead to environmental determinism, effectively overlooking the true causes of conflict. Read the full article here.
This issue of Conflict Trends will provide an overview of 2013 as captured in Version 4 of the ACLED dataset, before profiling dynamics in North Africa, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan, with an emphasis on countries which have experienced persistent instability in recent years.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DR-Congo) is the second most violent country in the ACLED dataset when measured by the number of conflict events; and the third most fatal over the course of the dataset's coverage (1997 - September 2013). This report examines M23 in North and South Kivu and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in northern DR-Congo.
ACLED's December issue of Conflict Trends focuses on the role of Seleka in fueling conflict in the Central African Republic, the growth of M-23 in DR-Congo, the increase of militia activity in Kenya and the ongoing instability in Libya. The report also looks at the increasing conflict levels in Mali, Mauritania and South Sudan.
Kenya is the seventh most violent country in the ACLED dataset with just over 3,500 recorded politically violent events between 1997 and September 2013. The report analyzes militia activity in urban areas, communal violence in the Rift Valley and conflict in neighboring Somalia.
The November 2013 issue of ACLED's Conflict Trends focuses on the intensification of violence in DR-Congo; persistent violence in Mali; the collapse of the peace agreement in Mozambique; several high-profile, high-intensity attacks in Nigeria; and rising unrest in Tunisia.
The October 2013 issue of ACLED's Conflict Trends includes analysis of the ongoing conflict in the Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo, the violence and political unrest continuing in Egypt, Al-Shabaab activity in Kenya, and Sudanese opposition protests.
The September 2013 issue of ACLED's monthly conflict trends report takes a look at ongoing unrest in the Central African Republic, mounting tension in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the emerging phenomenon of communal vigilante groups in Nigeria.
The August 2013 issue of Conflict Trends includes analysis of the escalating crisis in Egypt, which witnessed an intensification of fighting and related fatalities in July; an overview surrounding the recent elections in Mali and Zimbabwe; details of Morocco's conflict profile in historical and regional perspective; and a look at simmering tensions in Mozambique.
The July 2013 issue of ACLED's monthly conflict trends report focuses on the escalation of unrest in Egypt, ongoing violence in DR-Congo's Katanga Province, continuing communal violence in Kenya, and escalating conflict in Somalia's cities of Mogadishu and Kismayo. What to expect in the upcoming elections in Mali and Zimbabwe is also discussed.
Why given the pace and intensity of urbanization in Africa do urban conditions continue to deteriorate and national political programs remain fixed on rural development? In CCAPS Research Brief No. 14, Clionadh Raleigh argues that the poor state of urban cities will continue if migrants, the urban poor, and opposition parties cannot raise support to alter the political calculations of...
The User Guide to the CCAPS Conflict Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Conflict Dashboard brings together mapping, trends analysis, and raw data so that users can visualize emerging and historical conflict trends in Africa.
This report looks at the ongoing conflict in Nigeria, which intensified this month with the declaration of a state of emergency in the northeast and a renewed commitment on the part of the federal government to oust the northern Islamist militant group, Boko Haram. The report also examines conflict events in DR-Congo, Niger, Senegal, and South Africa.
The May volume of Conflict Trends looks at escalating conflict in Ivory Coast, Libya, and Nigeria which have each seen high-profile violence this month. The report also includes an overview of conflict in the Darfur Region of Sudan as well as the ongoing conflict in Somalia.
ACLED's country report focuses on Nigeria, the fourth most violent country in the ACLED dataset when measured by the number of violent events, and the seventh most fatal over the course of the dataset's coverage (1997 March 2013).
ACLED's country report focuses on Somalia, the most violent country in the ACLED dataset when measured on number of violent events, and the ninth most fatal country when measured in terms of conflict-related reported fatalities.
This issue of Conflict Trends focuses on recent developments in Central African Republic (CAR), Kenya, Mali, Nigeria and South Sudan. The special focus section this month provides a conceptual and methodological overview of ACLED terminology and categorization of violence, and its relevance to the analysis and understanding of discrete patterns and dynamics of conflict.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) released the March 2013 issue of its monthly Conflict Trends Report. This issue focuses on the run-up to the election in Kenya and profiles conflict patterns in Djibouti, Egypt, and Tunisia, where conflict escalated in the past month as political crises deepened across North Africa and the Horn.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 8, Caitriona Dowd outlines the geography of Islamist militancy on the African continent and provides an analysis of commonalities and differences across distinct militant Islamist groups. The analysis shows that the levels of violent Islamist activity in Africa have risen sharply in recent years, both in absolute and proportional terms.
The February 2013 issue of the Conflict Trends Report is the eleventh in a series of monthly publications from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset (ACLED). This month's report provides an overview of violent conflict trends in Africa in January 2013, with a focus on events in Kenya, Mali, Egypt, Algeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) released the January 2013 issue of its monthly Conflict Trends Report. This issue analyzes events in 2012 and focuses on the top ten most conflict-prone countries: Somalia, South Africa, Nigeria, DR-Congo, Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria.
The December issue of the Conflict Trends Report is the ninth in a series of monthly publications from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset (ACLED). This month is the second in a series of regionally-focused reports, focusing on the East Africa cases of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and DR-Congo.
The November issue of the Conflict Trends Report is the eighth in a series of monthly publications from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset (ACLED). This month is the first in a series of regionally-focused reports, looking at the West African states of Benin, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Mauritania.
This trends report is the seventh monthly publication by ACLED with analysis on realtime disaggregated data on political conflict in Africa. This month's report focuses on developments in DR-Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, and South Africa and includes a thematic focus on violent Islamist groups across the African continent.
This monthly trends report by ACLED focuses on developments in Côte d'Ivoire, DR-Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Realtime data for the month of August is presented, analyzed, and compared with longer-term trends to explore patterns in actors, modalities, and geographies of violence.
This monthly trends report focuses on recent political violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan. Realtime data for the month of July is presented for each of these countries, and compared with historical trends to identify profiles and patterns in the geography, agents, and modalities of violence in each case.
The fourth installment of the monthly trends reports from ACLED focuses on recent political violence in DR-Congo, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan. Analysis of these countries is focused on the month of June 2012, with reference to violence patterns over the course of ACLED's dataset. Present conflict patterns are compared with recent violent trends.
This conflict trends report from ACLED is the third installment of monthly reports that focus on regional conflict trends within Africa. The analysis in this report covers recent political violence in DR Congo, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan & South Sudan, Zimbabwe, and North African states including Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.
The second conflict trends report from ACLED focuses on regional conflict trends within Africa. The analysis in this report concentrates on recent political violence emanating from the Sahel belt and East Africa, due to the rise in instability there. Focus countries include Algeria, DR-Congo, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan.
This conflict trends report from ACLED focuses on regional conflict trends within Africa. The analysis is focused on recent political violence emanating from the Sahel belt and East Africa, due to the rise in instability there.
Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton use rainfall variability to explore the influence of the climate on conflict. Their article in the Journal of Peace Research shows that in locations that experience communal conflict events, the frequency of events increases in periods of extreme rainfall variation, irrespective of the sign of the rainfall change. Read the full article here.
CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh's article in Global Environmental Change discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction, and types of migration within the developing world. Read the full article here.
CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh discusses the relationship between physical geography and conflict patterns within African states. The author finds that "an area's physical attributes do not have a uniform effect on the likelihood of experiencing a conflict event." Read the full article here.
This article in the Journal of Peace Research presents ACLED, an Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset. ACLED codes the actions of rebels, governments, and militias within unstable states, specifying the exact location and date of battle events, transfers of military control, headquarter establishment, civilian violence, and rioting. Read the full article here.
This article in the International Studies Review by Clionadh Raleigh discusses the probability of increased communal conflict in African states due to the political vulnerability of groups to climate change.
CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton presented a paper at the International Studies Association 51st Annual Convention, which considers whether localized communal conflict is affected by increasing environmental instability.
In their article in Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd examine governance and violence rates in the 'ungoverned' spaces of the African Sahel. The authors review theories of spatial governance, the geopolitics of the Sahel, and the violent actors operating in the Sahel. Read the full article here.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
Colleen Devlin and Cullen Hendrix's article in Political Geography explores precipitation patterns and interstate conflict. They find that "long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes" and that "joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect."...
CCAPS researchers Joshua Busby, Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Todd Smith and Mesfin Bekalo recently published an article examining areas in Africa where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards.
In their article in the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Kerry Cook and Edwardy Vizy use a regional climate model with 90-km horizontal resolution to predict and analyze precipitation changes over East Africa due to greenhouse gas increases.
In the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Ned Vizy and Kerry Cook, with Julien Cretat and Naresh Neupane, use regional climate model simulations to develop predictions for the Sahel at the mid- and late- 21st century. Based on their analysis, the Sahel is likely to experience increased surface air temperatures, summer rainfall, and surface moisture.
This codebook presents the methodology developed and tested by the CCAPS program to track and map the climate change relevant activities within official development assistance (ODA) projects in Africa.
In the Journal of Climate, Edward Vizy and Kerry Cook predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041-2060. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days, number of dry days, number of extreme wet days, and extreme wet day rainfall intensity.
Kerry Cook and Edward Vizy in their article in Climate Dynamics project changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa, using a new regional climate model. The response is highly regional, with a decrease in growing season days projected for parts of West Africa, and a longer growing season projected for the central and eastern Sahel.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
Climate Change and Pastoralism: Traditional Coping Mechanisms and Conflict in the Horn of Africa, published by the Institute for Peace and Security Studies and the University for Peace, includes a chapter by CCAPS researchers on applying a continent-wide model of climate security vulnerability to East Africa and identifying the hot spots of concern. Read the full article here.
In a recent article for the Journal of Conflict Resolution, CCAPS researchers Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan use the program’s Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) to address issues pertaining the regime repression in Africa. Access the full article here.
This user guide provides detailed information on the climate aid data collected by the CCAPS program, including the climate coding process and the coding spectrum used to evaluate aid project activities.
In CCAPS Course Module No. 5, Catherine Weaver provides course material exploring why aid for adaptation and mitigation is important for addressing climate change vulnerability in Africa. The module covers climate funding for adaptation and mitigation programs, and how climate-related activities within development aid programs are identified and tracked.
In Course Module No. 4, CCAPS researcher Robert Wilson explores how climate change will affect people living in African cities. The answer to this complex question has two interrelated dimensions. It hinges on, first, the scope of future climate change and resulting changes in population exposures to weather-related hazards and, second, the degree of vulnerability of urban populations to these...
Colleen Devlin and Cullen Hendrix's article in Political Geography explores precipitation patterns and interstate conflict. They find that "long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes" and that "joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect."...
This dataset provides data on literacy rates, primary and secondary school attendance rates, access to improved water and sanitation, household access to electricity, and household ownership of radio and television.
CCAPS researchers Joshua Busby, Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Todd Smith and Mesfin Bekalo recently published an article examining areas in Africa where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards.
In a recent article featured in Nature Climate Change, CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh examines the theory that extreme weather events are the drivers of insecurity and conflict. She argues that suggesting that climate change is the dominant influence on violence can lead to environmental determinism, effectively overlooking the true causes of conflict. Read the full article here.
The Spring 2013 issue of International Security features an article by CCAPS researchers on mapping climate security vulnerability in Africa. The authors find that the places in Africa most vulnerable to the security consequences of climate change are parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and South Sudan. Read the full article here.
The CCAPS Climate Security Vulnerability Model (CSVM) aims to identify places most likely vulnerable to climate security concerns in Africa. This document outlines the general mapping process used for the vulnerability model, the rationale for inclusion of particular indicators in the model, and the specific process for calculating vulnerability.
In Research Brief No. 13, CCAPS researchers present the Climate Security Vulnerability Model which identifies the locations of chronic vulnerability to climate security concerns in Africa. This version of the model incorporates updated data sources, scales the data in a new way to capture differences in local vulnerabilities, and experiments with alternative formulas to determine how these various risk factors...
Joshua Busby presents Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Mapping 3.0 at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
Todd G. Smith presents Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest in Africa at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
Does climate change constitute a national security threat to the United States? What is climate security vulnerability? In Course Module No. 1, CCAPS researcher Joshua Busby provides background material, discussion questions, scenarios, and resources for an in-depth discussion on national security and climate change.
This paper by CCAPS researchers expands on the data, methodology, and results presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco (April 2013) and recently published in their paper “Climate security vulnerability in Africa mapping 3.0”, in Political Geography (Issue 43: 2014).
In the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Ned Vizy and Kerry Cook, with Julien Cretat and Naresh Neupane, use regional climate model simulations to develop predictions for the Sahel at the mid- and late- 21st century. Based on their analysis, the Sahel is likely to experience increased surface air temperatures, summer rainfall, and surface moisture. Read the full article here.
The Air and Space Power Journal Africa and Francophonie, a quarterly publication of the U.S. Air Force, featured an article by CCAPS researchers on the future consequences of climate change. The authors put forth the CCAPS model of vulnerability as an approach to identify where, when, and how climate-related events will disrupt Africa's security. Read full article here.
Ignatius Madu's article in the International Journal of Climate Change explores the spatial patterns of vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria, finding that the more vulnerable households are in northern states that are characterized by a high degree of rurality. Dr. Madu is a winner of the CCAPS Call for Papers on environmental security.
This codebook presents the methodology developed and tested by the CCAPS program to track and map the climate change relevant activities within official development assistance (ODA) projects in Africa.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 4, Jared Berenter provides findings from field research testing sub-national vulnerability maps. Field interviews supported many of the intuitions of CCAPS maps but also identified sources of divergence related to weighting population density, drought definitions, and challenges in capturing cross-border vulnerability.
In the Journal of Climate, Edward Vizy and Kerry Cook predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041-2060. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days, number of dry days, number of extreme wet days, and extreme wet day rainfall intensity. Read the full article here.
Kerry Cook and Edward Vizy in their article in Climate Dynamics project changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa, using a new regional climate model. The response is highly regional, with a decrease in growing season days projected for parts of West Africa, and a longer growing season projected for the central and eastern Sahel. Read the full article here.
Researchers summarize findings of field research to ground truth the validity of CCAPS sub-national vulnerability assessments. With definitions of vulnerability and adaptation influencing how donors and recipients prioritize resources, the adaptation agenda presents new questions about how to systematically identify climate change vulnerability.
In CCAPS Student Working Paper No. 4, Emily Joiner, Derell Kennedo, and Jesse Sampson expand on the CCAPS vulnerability model by incorporating new data on the political economy of governments as it may relate to their willingness and ability to adapt to climate change. Case studies include Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau.
In their article in the Journal of Peace Research, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. Read the full article here.
Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton use rainfall variability to explore the influence of the climate on conflict. Their article in the Journal of Peace Research shows that in locations that experience communal conflict events, the frequency of events increases in periods of extreme rainfall variation, irrespective of the sign of the rainfall change. Read the full article here.
CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh's article in Global Environmental Change discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction, and types of migration within the developing world. Read the full article here.
The CCAPS program held a workshop on May 16-17, 2011 to explore issues related to mapping and modeling climate vulnerability. Bringing together a range of experts, the workshop sought to forge tighter ties among the community of experts in this area, identify best practices, think through research challenges, and inform public debate.
Todd G. Smith presents the CCAPS vulnerability team's research at the IPSS/UPEACE sponsored conference on Traditional Knowledge and Adaptation to Adverse Impacts of Climate Change Among Pastoralists of the Horn of Africa in September 2011 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
CCAPS researcher Joshua Busby presents research on the future consequences of climate change in Africa at the American Political Science Association's meeting in Seattle, Washington in September 2011 and the International Studies Association Conference in New Orleans, Lousiana in February 2010.
In CCAPS Student Working Paper No. 1, Sachin Shah, Sarah Williams, and Shu Yang examine countries' vulnerability and their ability to minimize the effects of climate change. Case studies include Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
In CCAPS Student Working Paper No. 2, Bonnie Doty, Erika Grajeda, Pace Phillips, and Atul Shrestha outline the potential impact of climate change on security in East/Central Africa. Western Ethiopia, southern Sudan, eastern Burundi, and the tri-border region between Uganda, Sudan, and the DRC are identified as vulnerable to climate change.
In CCAPS Student Working Paper No. 3, graduate students Sanjeet Deka, Christian Glakas, and Marc Olivier refine the CCAPS vulnerability model to account for region-specific characteristics relevant to North Africa, including migration, water resources, and terrorism. Sudan appears to be the most vulnerable country in the region.
In CCAPS Policy Brief No. 3, Joshua Busby, Todd Smith, and Kaiba White identify which areas in Africa are most vulnerable to climate change, and why, at the most detailed scale possible. Africa is vulnerable to climate change, partly because of geography, and partly because of the low adaptive capacity of many African countries.
Todd Smith presents the CCAPS program's research on monthly rainfall extremes and social unrest in Africa at the International Studies Association Annual Convention in March 2010.
In this German Marshall Fund report, Joshua Busby, Kaiba White, and Todd Smith examine how climate change and physical sources of vulnerability to natural hazards might intersect with North Africa's various demographic, social, and political challenges. Read the full article here.
Joshua Busby discusses the outcomes of the Copenhagen conference and provides a roadmap for global climate change institutions to address perhaps the most difficult collective action problem the world has faced in this working paper by the International Institutions and Global Governance Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
In CCAPS Working Paper No. 1, Joshua Busby, Todd Smith, Kaiba White, and Shawn Strange discuss the CCAPS vulnerability model that combines data on physical, socioeconomic, and political insecurities. The researchers then uses geographic information systems (GIS) to locate the confluence of these various types of vulnerability.
In their article in the Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine several reasons for the failure to reach an international treaty on climate change. They propose several policies and mechanisms through which countries can reach a meaningful agreement to limit carbon emissions.
This article in the International Studies Review by Clionadh Raleigh discusses the probability of increased communal conflict in African states due to the political vulnerability of groups to climate change.
CCAPS researcher J. Timmons Roberts, Martin Stadelmann, and Saleemul Huq take a closer look at the Copenhagen promise and discuss six big questions about climate finance in their briefing by the International Institute for Environment and Development.
Joshua Busby examines the relationship between environmental quality, poverty, and security in his chapter in Confronting Poverty. The chapter explores what may be gained from efforts to securitize climate change, the evidence underpinning this, and varied arguments on the links between climate change and conflict. Read the full chapter here.
Peter Newell, CCAPS research J. Timmons Roberts, Emily Boyd, and Saleemul Huq identify four key lessons that donor countries need to learn in their briefing by the International Institute for Environment and Development.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
CCAPS researchers have developed a framework on how to identify, classify, and predict complex emergencies. This framework, outlined in CCAPS Research Brief No. 16, defines complex emergencies as crises resulting from a combination of instabilities interacting with each other.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
CCAPS is pleased to announce that the research of its Constitutional Design and Conflict Management (CDCM) project has recently been published as a book by the University of Pennsylvania Press, Constitutions and Conflict Management in Africa: Preventing Civil War Through Institutional Design, edited by Alan Kuperman. Purchase the book here.
This codebook describes the coding system for each variable included in the CCAPS program’s African Constitutional Design Database.
In Course Module No. 2, CCAPS researcher Alan Kuperman addresses a longstanding debate between academics and policymakers regarding two opposing strategies of constitutional design—accommodation and integration. Kuperman argues that both constitutional designs can produce stability, but they must be implemented properly.
In an article published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Alan Kuperman explores whether constitutional reform could reduce political instability and violence in Africa. The project recommends promoting gradual reform of Africa's centralized constitutional designs by counter-balancing them with liberal institutions. Read the full article here.
The CDCM project explores whether and how constitutional reform could reduce political instability and violence in Africa. In CCAPS Research Brief No. 15, Alan Kuperman outlines seven case studies on African countries, a database of constitutional design in all of Africa, and policy recommendations for foreign aid to promote democracy and good governance.
Alan Kuperman presents Designing Constitutions to Reduce Domestic Conflict at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 1, Alan Kuperman outlines Constitutional Design and Conflict Management research on which institutions are likely to moderate or exacerbate the impact of climate change. Case studies assess how political institutions could buffer the impact of climate change by channeling societal stress into non-violent outcomes.
The CCAPS team shares this annotated bibliography of literature on African comparative constitutional design and conflict management, global comparative constitutional design and conflict management, and case studies in Africa on constitutional design and conflict management.
CCAPS contributing partner Justin Frosini's article on constitutional design and conflict management in Ghana explores the constitutional and non-constitutional factors that have contributed to Ghana's democratic transition. The article was first published in Percorsi Costituzionali, n.2/3, 2011.
The June 2010 planning meeting of the Constitutional Design and Conflict Management (CDCM) team brought together preeminent scholars and practitioners to discuss the scope and methods of the CDCM research project. The group debated and finalized the research framework and case study countries to be studied.
No publicaion found for this program.
CCAPS Democratic Governance researchers Ashley Moran, Brooke Escobar, and Daniel Robles-Olson explore what types of democracy aid are most successful in impacting democratic development in Africa, focusing on two particularly challenging contexts: countries recovering from conflict and countries facing low human development.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 35, researchers Dan Robles-Olson and Ashley Moran analyze the effectiveness of democracy aid programs in Benin and Guinea, both of which face high poverty and low levels of human development. Though the two countries have similar histories, they have also endured different paths towards democratization.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 34, researchers Brooke Escobar and Ashley Moran analyze aid programming in post-conflict situations using a case study of Rwanda and Burundi. The study considers the causal mechanisms through which democracy promotion programs impact democratic development in a post-conflict context.
In Research Brief No. 33, Ashley Moran discusses the research design and case matching process for the CCAPS study assessing the impact of democracy aid in difficult contexts. By assessing how democracy aid impacts democratic development in key contexts, the study aims to provide new empirical analysis to support the design of democracy aid programs.
CCAPS researchers Ashley Moran and Clionadh Raleigh, with co-author Yacob Mulugetta, explore how local-level conflict and environmental data can assist policymakers and researchers in assessing links between environmental patterns and violence. The brief, published with GMACC, explores the difficulties of bridging between physical and political phenomena through three ongoing conflicts across Africa: Darfur, Mali, and South Sudan.
In Research Brief No. 20, Ashley Moran and Dominique Thuot discuss new mapping tools that allow users to view data on climate change vulnerability, real-time conflict tracking, and international aid intervention. By combining scientific, security, governance, and development data, users are able to investigate complex security questions.
This paper assesses subnational vulnerabilities to climate change in Nigeria as a foundation for evaluating adaptation priorities and highlighting the security implications of climate change and adaptation. It identifies state, national, and regional governance channels to build resilience and address security challenges in Nigeria.
CCAPS researcher Ashley Moran's presentation on the objectives of the case studies on building democratic governance in Africa.
CCAPS researcher Ashley Moran's presentation on the objectives of the case studies on building democratic governance in Africa.
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
In Course Module No. 3, CCAPS researcher Jennifer Bussell provides background and discussion materials for consideration of how partner nations' institutional capacity for disaster preparedness may be relevant to the U.S. Military. Bussell explores institutional capacity in the context of natural disasters, and how it can be defined.
In CCAPS Student Working Paper No. 6, a team of researchers led by Dr. Jennifer Bussell explores the causes of variation in government policies to reduce the risk of, prepare for, and respond to natural disasters. The report focuses on the African continent and ten case studies within Africa.
CCAPS researchers Jennifer Bussell and Adam Colligan present their research on the political economy of natural disasters in Africa at the International Studies Association Conference in San Francisco, California on April 3-6, 2013. Drawing on a new case material from ten countries, the researchers evaluate the role of perceived risk, economic conditions, electoral politics, political development, and moral hazard in...
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 10, Jennifer Bussell suggests that the two clearest predictors of countries' investment in disaster preparedness are economic strength and perceived risk of natural threats. However, these factors explain little when there is limited electoral incentive to invest in disaster management or minimal bureaucratic capacity to implement preparedness programs.
Jennifer Bussell presents CCAPS research on the political economy of natural disasters in Africa at the UN-WIDER Climate Change and Development Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland on September 28, 2012.
Students in Dr. Jennifer Bussell's Policy Research Project course at the LBJ School of Public Affairs discuss their year-long assessment of the capacity of select African countries to prepare for and respond to natural shocks, especially those caused by climate change. Students traveled to select African countries including Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, Togo, Zambia, and...
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
The report is based on a year-long Policy Research Project course that was co-directed by Robert H. Wilson and Todd G. Smith during the 2012-2013 academic year. The project explores the role of local government in developing resilience due to its key role in addressing urban vulnerabilities.
CCAPS Research Brief No. 30 examines how local governments are increasingly confronted with challenges resulting from weather events related to global climate change. This brief examines the efforts made by ten African cities to develop resiliency to climate events.
CCAPS Research Brief No. 29 explores how changing weather patterns, driven by global climate change, will generate additional challenges in the growing cities of Africa where high levels of poverty, strained infrastructure systems, and lack of adequate housing already burden local governments.
In Course Module No. 4, CCAPS researcher Robert Wilson explores how climate change will affect people living in African cities. The answer to this complex question has two interrelated dimensions. It hinges on, first, the scope of future climate change and resulting changes in population exposures to weather-related hazards and, second, the degree of vulnerability of urban populations to these...
In CCAPS Working Paper No. 4, Robert Wilson and Todd Smith examine the responses and adaptations to climate change within ten African cities. Using a comparative case study approach, field research was conducted on the governance systems in Ghana, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Angola, and Mozambique.
Graduate students in Dr. Robert Wilson's Policy Research Project present research on the capacity of local governments to respond to the impacts of climate change. Students traveled to select African cities "including Accra, Ghana; Alexandria, Egypt; Cape Town, South Africa; Casablanca, Morocco; Dakar, Senegal; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Kampala, Uganda; Luanda, Angola; and Maputo, Mozambique" to conduct field research and interviews...
CCAPS is a multi-year research effort to identify where and how climate change could undermine state stability, to define strategies for building African state capacity, and to assess global development aid responses. Based at the Robert Strauss Center at UT-Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, CCAPS has been a collaborative research effort with institutional partners...
The Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD) is the successor to the Social Conflict in Africa Database. This version of the data extends coverage to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, while maintaining the data for Africa.
In a recent article for the Journal of Conflict Resolution, CCAPS researchers Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan use the program’s Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) to address issues pertaining the regime repression in Africa. Access the full article here.
In their article in International Interactions, CCAPS researchers Cullen Henrix and Idean Salehyan discuss underreporting bias. The authors propose using the method of mark and recapture to find an estimate of the true number of events. Read the full article here.
Cullen Hendrix, a lead researcher on the CCAPS program, and Stephan Haggard recently published an article on global food prices and urban unrest in the Journal of Peace Research. Their research, which focuses on Africa and Asia and uses data from 1961 to 2010, is also highlighted in NewSecurityBeat, a blog by the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program. Read the...
CCAPS researcher Idean Salehyan discusses best practices in collecting conflict data, including source selection, coding, and data sharing. Read the full article here.
In Research Brief No. 24, Cullen Hendrix assesses water security in the Sahel by focusing on Niger and addressing the prospects for local, national, and international institutions to mitigate water conflict. The brief concludes that robust institutions are a critical conflict-mitigating tool and that local-level adaptations may be more effective in addressing water stress than broad national policies.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 23, Idean Salehyan and Brandon Stewart tackle the question of why dissidents target the government at some times, yet at other times target other actors in society. The brief uses data from the newly expanded Social Conflict Analysis Database, which tracks social conflicts from 1990-2013, and now covers all of Africa, Mexico, Central America, and...
Colleen Devlin and Cullen Hendrix's article in Political Geography explores precipitation patterns and interstate conflict. They find that "long-run variability in precipitation and lower mean levels of precipitation in dyads are associated with the outbreak of militarized interstate disputes" and that "joint precipitation scarcity – defined as both countries experiencing below mean rainfall in the same year – has a conflict-dampening effect."...
In this article, CCAPS researcher Todd G. Smith explores the issue of whether rising domestic consumer food prices are a contributing cause of sociopolitical unrest, more broadly defined, in urban areas of Africa.
CCAPS researchers Idean Salehyan and Cullen Hendrix examine the relationship between environmental scarcity and political violence. The authors conclude that "water abundance is positively correlated with political violence, and that this relationship is stronger in less developed, more agriculturally dependent societies." Read the full article here.
In Research Brief Number 22, CCAPS researchers Aleksandra Egorova and Cullen Hendrix discuss the possibility of natural disasters providing an opportunity to build peace via negotiated settlements.
In Research Brief Number 21, CCAPS researchers Colleen Devlin, Brittany Franck and Cullen Hendrix address the concern that changing precipitation patterns will be a cause of future interstate conflict. By looking at long-term trends and short-term triggers, Devlin, Franck and Hendrix push beyond the common theories about resource-based conflict.
In Research Brief No. 19, Idean Salehyan and Cullen Hendrix examine how characteristics of a social conflict event and the nature of the regime interact to determine repressive outcomes. Using the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD), they find that events that are more threatening to the central government are more likely to be met with force.
The User Guide to the CCAPS Conflict Dashboard provides detailed information on how to navigate the dashboard, use advanced filters, download data, and share maps. The CCAPS Conflict Dashboard brings together mapping, trends analysis, and raw data so that users can visualize emerging and historical conflict trends in Africa.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 11, Todd Smith seeks to unravel the complex and circular relationship between food prices and social unrest in Africa and to provide insight into potential causal mechanisms. His main finding is that a sudden increase in consumer food prices in a given month does contribute significantly to an increase in the probability of unrest in...
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 6, Idean Salehyan and Christopher Linebarger use the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) to assess the relationship between elections and unrest. The study found that elections increase conflict in two distinct contexts: during times of civil war, and in authoritarian systems.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 7, Cullen Hendrix argues that the very features of democracy that make it better suited to address the issues of the rural sector - where chronic food insecurity is most prevalent - also make democracies more likely to see unrest in times of high food prices.
In this article featured in International Interactions, CCAPS researchers Idean Salehyan, Cullen S. Hendrix, Jesse Hamner, Christina Case, Christopher Linebarger, Emily Stull, and Jennifer Williams describe the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) which contains information on over 7,200 instances of unrest in 47 African countries from 1990-2010.
In CCAPS Research Brief No. 3, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan analyze the relationship between drought and political violence. The authors find that environmental scarcity is not always a trigger of political violence. Political violence is more prevalent following years of "good" rainfall, and drought suppresses certain types of violence.
In their article in the Journal of Peace Research, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. Read the full article here.
Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan present CCAPS research on shocks and political violence at the International Studies Association Annual Convention in March 2011.
In CCAPS Policy Brief No. 2, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. The authors argue that understanding and responding to the threat of climate-driven instability in Africa requires a definition of conflict that recognizes episodic unrest, riots, and demonstrations as well as interstate or civil war.
CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh discusses the relationship between physical geography and conflict patterns within African states. The author finds that "an area's physical attributes do not have a uniform effect on the likelihood of experiencing a conflict event." Read the full article here.
Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan present their preliminary findings on rainfall, water, and conflict in Africa at the Climate Change and Security Conference in Trondheim, Norway.
Ashley Moran and Cullen Hendrix present CCAPS research to the Defense Science Board in June 2010.
In their article in the Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine several reasons for the failure to reach an international treaty on climate change. They propose several policies and mechanisms through which countries can reach a meaningful agreement to limit carbon emissions.
This paper by CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton presented at the International Studies Association 51st Annual Convention considers whether localized communal conflict is affected by increasing environmental instability.
CCAPS researchers Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan present the objectives of new research on social conflict in Africa.
This report summarizes CEPSA program findings on disaster vulnerability and response, conflict assessment, complex emergencies, and Asian politics. Understanding how different insecurities coalesce to impact vulnerability in Asia—and assessing when and how these insecurities can develop into complex emergencies—has strong implications for U.S. national and international security.
The CEPSA climate security vulnerability research team presents its updated findings of the Asian Climate Security Vulnerability model version 2 (ACSV V2), an attempt to map sub-national climate security vulnerability in 11 countries in South and Southeast Asia.
The Critical Materials Innovation Hub (CMI Hub) translated basic science discovery on mechanisms for separation of rare earth elements into engineered chemicals being commercialized through a public-private partnership
Work with domestic and international partners to forge and sustain a robust, secure, and resilient industrial base enabling the warfighter, now and in the future.
Access to strategic materials is critical to the modern U.S. advanced economy becausestrategic materials are necessary for many industries including electronics, energy storage,vehicles, infrastructure, computing, and more.
While important in addressing barriers to critical mineral investments, infrastructure projects – such as the United States-led Lobito Atlantic Railway project covering Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia – may result in positive spillovers for competitors in a way that does not align with investors’ original intent.
While important in addressing barriers to critical mineral investments, infrastructure projects – such as the United States-led Lobito Atlantic Railway project covering Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia – may result in positive spillovers for competitors in a way that does not align with investors’ original intent.
Given China’s overwhelming dominance in the production of all steps of the battery anode supply chain,diversifying global graphite production is essential to a secure global energy transition.
Given China’s overwhelming dominance in the production of all steps of the battery anode supply chain,diversifying global graphite production is essential to a secure global energy transition.
Critical minerals are necessary in applications across core industries, from the defense industrialbase to the automotive industry.1 Nickel, for example, is used in the steel pressure hulls of attacksubmarines and the lithium-ion batteries of electric vehicles.
This memo provides an overview of nickel demand and the current nickel supply chain,focusing on recent market developments. It reviews relevant chemical processing routes,techno-economic considerations, and key geographies.
Ashley Moran, International Crisis Group, 2020
Download ReportAshley Moran, Josh Busby, Clionadh Raleigh, Todd Smith, Roudabeh Kishi, Nisha Krishnan, and Charles Wight, USAID, 2019
Ashley Moran, Clionadh Raleigh, Josh Busby, and Charles Wight, USAID, 2019
Ashley Moran, Clionadh Raleigh, Josh Busby, and Charles Wight, USAID, 2019
https://warontherocks.com/2018/11/horns-of-a-dilemma-the-intersection-of-global-fragility-and-climate-risks/ Josh Busby and Ashley Moran, UT, Austin, 2018
Ashley Moran, Joshua Busby, and Clionadh Raleigh, War on the Rocks, 2018
Download ReportAshley Moran, Josh Busby, Clionadh Raleigh, Todd Smith, Roudabeh Kishi, Nisha Krishnan, and Charles Wight, USAID, 2018
Ashley Moran, Clionadh Raleigh, Josh Busby, Charles Wight, and Nisha Krishnan, USAID, 2018
Ashley Moran, Clionadh Raleigh, Josh Busby, and Charles Wight, USAID, 2018